A breakdown of what to anticipate from Shohei Ohtani as soon as he will get again on the mound – Dodgers Digest

Shohei Ohtani is coming off a season for the ages. He turned the primary 50-50 participant within the 150-year historical past of this nice sport. He received his third MVP award and have become the primary major designated hitter to take action. Oh, and he helped the Dodgers to a World Collection title in his first season with the group.

What’s he going to do for an encore? Effectively, he’s going pitch in 2025. In fact, he seemingly received’t be a workhorse starter regardless of averaging 5.7 innings per begin for his profession (not counting the 2 he made in 2020 getting back from his first Tommy John surgical procedure) and he’s not even anticipated to debut on the mound till someday in Might, however the Dodgers didn’t signal him to a $700 million contract based mostly on the power of simply his bat (which, if 2024 is any indication, might have nonetheless been a steal). He’s going to pitch, and doubtless going to pitch nicely.

What involves thoughts is, many Dodger followers have in all probability by no means seen or seen little or no of Ohtani on the mound. I don’t suspect many on this fan base spent a number of time watching the Angels from 2018 by way of 2023. He made only one begin towards the Dodgers on June 21, 2023, and was superb: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R/ER, 1 BB, 12 Okay. Aside from that begin, probably the most memorable second Ohtani has ever had on the mound in current reminiscence is within the 2023 World Baseball Traditional — particularly, his showdown with then-teammate Mike Trout.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Mike Trout
Closing at bat of the USA vs. Japan WBC Championship – 2023 pic.twitter.com/69gZhxepil

— Spotlight Vault (@HighlightVault) September 19, 2024

The sweeper on 3-2 to get the swinging strikeout may be probably the most well-executed pitch in baseball historical past. It might sound like hyperbole, however persuade me in any other case.

Many (myself included) thought Ohtani was a greater pitching prospect than a hitting prospect. The Dodgers had been on Ohtani as far again as 2012. And whereas he’s been markedly higher on the plate in his MLB profession — partly because of damage — he has ace-like potential on the mound.

Ohtani’s finest season the bump got here in 2022. He pitched to a 2.33 ERA, 2.40 FIP and a 26.5 Okay-BB% in 166 innings. His different two sturdy seasons got here in 2021 and ’23. There was a dip in efficiency in ’23 forward of his second TJ process, so that may clarify a few of the decline. Nevertheless, I need to take a look at his pitch utilization from 2021-23 and see what modified, what went proper, what went flawed and what he would possibly have the ability to do going ahead to recapture a few of that 2022 glory.

Let me preface this by saying that is all evaluation by way of the 2023 season — i.e., earlier than his second TJ process. That is all topic to alter, ought to he fail to return to his earlier degree of pitching prowess.

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4-Seam Fastball

Some blended outcomes on his heater. It was only for him in ’23, when he backed off the velo a bit, elevated the spin barely, but allowed just a little more durable contact from the earlier season. He can run it up there in extra of 100 MPH (at the very least, earlier than his newest surgical procedure), so we’ll see if he can get again to that velocity. With the Dodgers not having their beginning pitchers depend on 4-seam fastballs as a lot, it wouldn’t be shocking to see an huge enhance in utilization. Tyler Glasnow led non-James Paxton Dodger starters with a forty five% 4-seam utilization. Jack Flaherty was at 44.2% after his acquisition, whereas Yoshinobu Yamamoto checked in at 40.4%. One thing between his 2021 and 2023 utilization might be proper for him.

Right here it’s in motion:

100 MPH on pitch 99.

Shohei Ohtani shouldn’t be human. pic.twitter.com/qNDCpUi3mj

— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2021

Together with his huge array of choices, he doesn’t have to rely closely on his fastball.

Sweeper

Ohtani’s sweeper is a go-to pitch for him. He throws continuously and enjoys success with it. He has been capable of maintain hitters in verify with it by limiting exit velocity and getting an excellent quantity of swings and misses. Like a number of breaking pitches, although, it’s vulnerable to getting hit out of the park. Of the 53 house runs he has allowed as a pitcher, 22 have been off the sweeper (41.5%).

209 seconds of Shohei Ohtani’s Sweeper Strikeouts in 2023. 😷 pic.twitter.com/jC2qxhp4CQ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) December 9, 2023

Amongst the Dodgers, sweepers have been mostly related to relievers like Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen, so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see it used extra within the rotation. In fact, Clayton Kershaw constructed a Corridor of Fame résumé on a slider, which is the mother or father pitch of the sweeper. We noticed Walker Buehler throw it 8.2% of the time in 2024, so it isn’t fully international to Dodger beginning pitchers.

Splitter

Right here is Ohtani’s cash pitch. That’s unusual to say on a pitch he has thrown simply 13.2% of the time in his 481 2/3 MLB innings, however it has been so extremely efficient in each facet of pitching. Whereas his utilization dropped in three consecutive years, the truth that his 2023 numbers with the pitch have been his “worst” in that span regardless of throwing it the least is a bit perplexing. Nonetheless, he restricted the exit velo on it and stored the whiff price above 40%.

It may have one thing to do with location. Listed here are the heatmaps of his splitter from ’21-’23.

He lived under the strike zone in 2022 after being up a bit in 2021. His location in 2023 was … curious, to say the least. There isn’t as a lot knowledge since he didn’t use it as a lot, however when he did, it was in every single place. Possibly that unpredictability led to hitters not with the ability to sq. it up as a lot? Unsure, however it’s simpler to see why he didn’t get as many whiffs on it (however the price was nonetheless actually good).

Shohei Ohtani has completed 20 plate appearances along with his splitter this season. The outcomes? Hitters are 0-for-19 … with 18 strikeouts.

Baseball’s most unhittable pitch is again. STORY ➡️ https://t.co/Re8HHNmISo pic.twitter.com/7pDyILyGkt

— David Adler (@_dadler) April 29, 2021

If I’m the Dodgers, I virtually threat a rise in utilization whereas reducing utilization of the subsequent pitch under.

Cutter

Right here is the place Ohtani may be getting himself into hassle. His cutter was one thing he picked up in 2021 and, nicely, the outcomes weren’t nice then. He recorded only one strikeout on a plate look ending in a cutter. For reference, he had three strikeouts on his curveball that very same 12 months — a pitch he threw 182 fewer occasions than his cutter. Issues didn’t get significantly better in 2022 (regardless of being his finest season as a pitcher). He allowed some gaudy opponents’ hitting numbers, regardless of decreasing the utilization by practically a 3rd. Then in 2023, in an actual against-the-grain transfer, he opted to throw it roughly 55% greater than the earlier season. The outcomes have been, predictably, not nice!

The league-average numbers for reduce fastballs in 2024 have been as follows:

• .267 xBA
• .440 xSLG
• .337 xwOBA
• 88.5 MPH EV
• 23.5 Whiff%

In Ohtani’s finest season with the cutter, he was worse in each single class. Let’s take a look at the discharge factors and arm angle to see if we will discover an issue.

After 2021, issues modified considerably dramatically. His arm angle dropped considerably, which appeared to be a factor for all his pitches; not simply cutter-specific. With the change in arm angle got here a decrease vertical launch level and a bit wider horizontal launch level. That occurred with all his choices, so I’m unsure we will deduce a lot from that apart from his cutter suffered immensely with the arm angle/launch level adjustments.

Shohei Ohtani, Depraved 91mph Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/5ZrMGAOl0a

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) Might 21, 2023

Generally — even a pitch of Ohtani’s caliber — simply can’t make a pitch work persistently nicely for him (see: Kershaw, Clayton and the changeup). I’m certain the Dodgers will try to salvage the cutter, as there’s some worth in it (like making his sweeper even higher), however he has such an intensive repertoire that he may cut back the cutter utilization and nonetheless be an elite-level pitcher. This might be one thing to observe as soon as we begin getting pitch knowledge on him as a Dodger.

Curveball

The curveball is one in all his most seldom-used pitches and has produced actually good outcomes — maybe due to restricted publicity. Nonetheless, if he reduces his cutter utilization, maybe his curveball utilization will get a bump. It’s exhausting to get too enthusiastic about he threw simply 5.4% of the time from ’21-’23, however the potential is there.

We’ve seen Kenta Maeda fall in love along with his curveball a bit an excessive amount of previously — to his detriment — however Yamamoto’s curveball is one in all his higher pitches that he throws with some frequency (23.1%). With Buehler’s departure, some extra right-handed curveballs is probably not the worst factor for the Dodgers and Ohtani.

Significantly better command of the secondaries within the second inning for Shohei Ohtani. Not probably the most pitch-efficient by any means, but additionally some nasty pitches like this curve. pic.twitter.com/3zXOzhDpeh

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) April 21, 2021

It’s not going to supplant his sweeper or splitter, but when it might cut back the publicity of his cutter, it could very nicely be value it.

Sinker

The sinker may be categorized in the identical class as his 4-seam fastball when it comes to effectiveness, however it’s additionally a sparingly used pitch that might see a little bit of a bump if the cutter utilization decreases. In 2023 in restricted utilization, he did an amazing job of limiting exhausting contact. It’s not an enormous swing-and-miss pitch league-wide, so the 22.5 Whiff% he had in 2023 is de facto spectacular. The league-average for 2024 was 13.9% and 14.3% in 2023. This might be a little bit of a secret weapon for him going ahead, particularly because the Dodgers have carried out a rise in sinker/2-seamer utilization from 2022 (5.8%) to 2023 (11.0%) to final season (12.1%).

Shohei Ohtani, Sick 96mph Sinker. 🤒 pic.twitter.com/aEzY8ssCL3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 30, 2022

If he can throw it like this, it may be curtains for the league.

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As a lot enjoyable as we had watching Ohtani on the plate final season, seeing him on the mound might be, nicely, perhaps not as a lot enjoyable, however nonetheless fairly thrilling. That is, clearly, all depending on him getting back from surgical procedure nicely. He’s reportedly sitting 92-94 MPH in bullpens to this point and is just throwing fastballs. He’s additionally going to include the wind-up, as he pitched primarily from the stretch in his profession to this point. If he doesn’t ever get again to triple-digit velocity, it in all probability received’t be the tip of the world for him. He’s sensible and succesful sufficient to not need to depend on elite velocity. Then once more, he’s not of this world, so perhaps he’ll come all the way in which again throwing even more durable — Walker Buehler-style. Both approach, the Dodgers and the fan base are going to get a pleasant glimpse into the subsequent 9 years of his take care of him being the true 2-way participant he was signed to be.

His offense would possibly take a little bit of a success, however he’s nonetheless going to be one of many recreation’s premiere hitters. In case you add an above-average beginning pitcher on high of that, there’s virtually no approach he doesn’t win MVP each single 12 months. You understand, except the writers give him the Barry Bonds therapy. Possibly meaning Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman can snag yet another MVP, Jeff Kent-style.

Regardless, I, for one, can’t wait to look at Ohtani pitch for the Dodgers.