I’ve already predicted the regular-season standings for all six divisions within the main leagues. The following logical step, after all, is to forecast the postseason.
That’s what I’ll be doing at the moment and within the subsequent two installments of Baseball’s Greatest (and Worst). I’m going to start with the American League, adopted by the Nationwide League on Tuesday and the World Sequence on the finish of subsequent week.
These hyperlinks supply a glance again at my expectations for the AL within the 12 months to return:
The AL’s three divisional champions, in accordance with my predictions, would be the Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, and Minnesota Twins. I’ve listed them so as of their seeds, as decided by the variety of factors they obtained from my history-based prediction system.
The three wild-card entries would be the Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, and Detroit Tigers, respectively seeded fourth by sixth.
The 2 top-rated groups in every league — the 1 and a couple of seeds — get byes within the wild-card spherical. They subsequently play the 2 wild-card winners in a pair of division collection, culminating within the league’s championship collection. The winner, after all, heads on to the World Sequence.
What follows is my script for the American League’s postseason ladder in October 2025. I ran 1,000 simulations of every collection, powered by every membership’s prediction rating. I stored issues easy, advancing the crew that gained greater than 500 simulations to the subsequent spherical. (However potential upsets have been at all times lurking. You’ll discover that the underdogs have been victorious in tons of of matchups in each collection.)
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Matchup: Minnesota Twins (3 seed, first place in AL Central, 94 prediction factors) vs. Detroit Tigers (6 seed, second place in AL Central, 83 prediction factors)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Twins 522, Tigers 478
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Backside line: The Twins scored 20 fewer prediction factors than one of many wild-card entries, the Seattle Mariners. However the postseason schedule is tilted in favor of divisional champions, handing Minnesota this pretty comfortable slot towards an AL Central foe. The Twins will advance.
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Matchup: Seattle Mariners (4 seed, second place in AL West, 114 prediction factors) vs. New York Yankees (5 seed, second place in AL East, 86 prediction factors)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Mariners 570, Yankees 430
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Backside line: That is essentially the most lopsided collection within the American League. The Mariners outperformed the Yankees by 28 prediction factors, setting the stage for a mismatch. My laptop provides Seattle a determined benefit.
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Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (1 seed, first place in AL East, 117 prediction factors) vs. Seattle Mariners (4 seed, second place in AL West, 114 prediction factors)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Orioles 510, Mariners 490
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Backside line: The schedule doesn’t give Baltimore any favors. The Orioles led the whole league in prediction factors, but they draw a wild-card opponent, Seattle, which completed simply three factors behind. Baltimore is a slight favourite.
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Matchup: Houston Astros (2 seed, first place in AL West, 115 prediction factors) vs. Minnesota Twins (3 seed, first place in AL Central, 94 prediction factors)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Astros 536, Twins 464
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Backside line: The Astros get a far simpler path by the ALDS than Baltimore does. Houston is pitted towards Minnesota, the least expert of the three divisional champions. The pc expects the Astros to prevail.
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Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (1 seed, first place in AL East, 117 prediction factors) vs. Houston Astros (2 seed, first place in AL West, 115 prediction factors)
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Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Astros 502, Orioles 498
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Backside line: The highest two seeds meet within the ALCS. Their totals of prediction factors are just about similar, although their ranges of postseason expertise are vastly completely different. Houston has performed in seven of the previous eight championship collection, whereas Baltimore hasn’t appeared in an ALCS since 2014. The Astros are given the slightest of nods in 2025.
