It’s the identical previous, standard within the American League West.
My history-based prediction system envisions the Houston Astros successful the division in 2025, simply as they’ve executed in each full-length season since 2017.
I’ve in contrast the file for every AL West membership through the previous three seasons (2022-2024) in opposition to the corresponding marks for 1,318 groups through the period of free company (which started in 1976), in search of parallels from the previous that may supply hints concerning the future.
I regarded particularly for the 50 closest matches (CMs) from the previous for every present group, after which examined their subsequent performances.
The 2022-2024 Astros, for instance, most intently resembled the 1976-1978 Cincinnati Reds, the famed Huge Crimson Machine that gained the ’76 World Collection and completed in second place twice through the three-year span. The Reds subsequently went 90-71 and grabbed one other divisional title in 1979.
My 2025 prediction for any given membership is predicated on 4 rungs of a ladder. Every of the present group’s 50 CMs that topped .500 in its following season is value one level, with a playoff qualification bringing two further factors, a league title one other three, and a world championship an additional 4.
Houston’s 50 CMs yielded a complete of 115 factors, another greater than the Seattle Mariners obtained, setting the stage for a decent AL West race. Right here is the anticipated order of end:
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1. Houston Astros
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2. Seattle Mariners
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3. Texas Rangers
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4. Los Angeles Angels
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5. Sacramento Athletics
You’ll discover breakdowns for all 5 groups beneath. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2025 prediction factors, adopted by its 2024 file, then the next-season outcomes for the 50 CMs. The ultimate line discloses the very closest match of all. (Don’t be alarmed if the next-year file for the closest CM differs from my general prediction. What really issues is the cumulative rating for all 50 CMs.)
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2025 prediction factors: 115
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2024 file: 88-73
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Closest matches (CM): 50
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Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
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Gained league title in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
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Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 21 of fifty
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Topped .500 in subsequent season: 36 of fifty
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Closest match of all for 2025: 1979 Reds (90-71)
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2025 prediction factors: 114
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2024 file: 85-77
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Closest matches (CM): 50
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Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
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Gained league title in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
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Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 21 of fifty
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Topped .500 in subsequent season: 39 of fifty
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Closest match of all for 2025: 1998 Dodgers (83-79)
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2025 prediction factors: 72
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2024 file: 78-84
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Closest matches (CM): 50
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Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
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Gained league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
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Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 12 of fifty
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Topped .500 in subsequent season: 28 of fifty
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Closest match of all for 2025: 2009 Rockies (92-70)
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2025 prediction factors: 34
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2024 file: 63-99
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Closest matches (CM): 50
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Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
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Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
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Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
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Topped .500 in subsequent season: 15 of fifty
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Closest match of all for 2025: 2019 Royals (59-103)
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2025 prediction factors: 32
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2024 file: 69-93
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Closest matches (CM): 50
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Gained World Collection in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
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Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
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Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
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Topped .500 in subsequent season: 10 of fifty
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Closest match of all for 2025: 1977 Tigers (74-88)
