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Monday, February 10, 2025

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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/27/25


2:00
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody. We now have a light-weight chat queue immediately, so I’m gonna strive one thing new and go quicker, however attempt to get to virtually all of the questions
2:00
Ben Clemens: So apologies prematurely if I don’t keep it up however as of now, I’m going for an hour lengthy lightning spherical. Your voice will (virtually actually) be heard!
2:00
Justin: Why was Jack Suwinski fairly good in 23 and fairly terrible in 24?
2:00
Ben Clemens: variancde is wild
2:01
Ben Clemens: additionally I feel that he spiked just about every little thing on the highest percentile in ’23
2:01
Ben Clemens: performed means higher than projections or minor league monitor file would recommend just about in all places
2:01
Ben Clemens: generally you might have a profession 12 months
2:01
Craig: I now see why Rooker took $60M 3 years away when Santander obtained $68M on the similar age as a free agent
2:01
Ben Clemens: AGreed. A bit shocked by the Santander deal
2:01
diadem: What had been Yamamoto and Sasaki”s well being information in Japan? Any purple flags?
2:02
Ben Clemens: Yamamoto, not conscious of a ton. Sasaki, in depth. You may learn Eric’s numerous stories however he had loads of accidents and abbreviated enjoying time issues
2:02
drplantwrench: padres are reportedly making Michael King out there. looks as if they want a LFer.  would Taylor Ward for King be possible as a basis for a commerce?
2:03
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that’s the sort of man they’re concentrating on, I feel they’d need both extra influence or extra workforce management
2:03
James: How do you see the AL West shaking out, based mostly on the place the workforce’s are proper now?
2:03
Ben Clemens: Rangers/M’s/A’s/Stros/Angels
2:03
drplantwrench: am i a being a naive angels fan or is it not unreasonable to speak myself into the worth of a 1-3 12 months contract with alonso with some workforce choices? even when meaning havoc for the roster development?
2:03
Ben Clemens: I’m writing about Alonso contract choices proper now
2:03
Ben Clemens: I imply… I’d try this
2:04
splat_edc: What are your go to’s when prospect stats (particularly these in ranges w/o statcast)?
2:04
Ben Clemens: I feel that’s too complicated of a query to reply in a chat, to be trustworthy
2:04
Ben Clemens: As a rule of thumb, the decrease stage and youthful the prospectds are, the extra I care about contact metrics
2:04
Ben Clemens: If you happen to’re hanging out 30% of the time in A ball at 20, you most likely can’t hit main league pitching
2:04
Ben Clemens: the older and nearer to the bigs they get, the extra I care about energy and simply general manufacturing
2:04
Ben Clemens: as for pitchers… I don’t have a very good heuristic
2:04
James: Why do you assume Mariano Rivera went unanimously however Ichiro and Jeter fell one vote shy? Did all of the writers who stated they wouldn’t vote for anybody from the steroid period die off?
2:05
Ben Clemens: Actually no thought and I’m irritated that this one nameless man will get a information cycle
2:05
Ben Clemens: what a dummy that voter is to not assume Ichiro is a corridor of famer
2:05
drplantwrench: oh additionally hello ben! hope you’re doing properly <3
2:05
Ben Clemens: hi there! I’m doing nice, great week and January has been enjoyable
2:05
Jackson: There’s no means the Phillies are carried out tinkering with their outfield proper? The offseason pitching strikes had been positive, however as a contending workforce with a closing window I’m confused as to why they assume Kepler is the reply
2:05
Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I feel they’re carried out, however I don’t assume they need to be
2:05
James: When does MLB hit the panic button on John Fisher and the A’s stadium scenario? There’s been zero signal of traders prepared to hitch his Vegas endeavor and I doubt he’s prepared/capable of deal with the stadium financing himself. If there is no such thing as a motion by the top of the 12 months, does MLB push him to promote?
2:06
Ben Clemens: I feel that if we’ve discovered something lately, it’s that baseball doesn’t need to push Fisher to promote
2:06
Ben Clemens: like, what makes you assume this is able to be the final straw?
2:06
Bullock’s: I’m nonetheless within the bargaining stage of processing my Orioles’ offseason.  So: if the Orioles nonetheless had Connor Norby, would he have been sufficient to headline a commerce for Luis Castillo?  Or was Mayo all the time the minimal?
2:06
Ben Clemens: I feel that Mayo was most likely all the time the minimal, tbh. However I don’t understand how the M’s really feel about Norby particularly so who is aware of
2:06
Sodo Mojo: It feels just like the Mariners both lacked a plan this off season or dramatically over valued its property.  That is the primary off season I’ve seen from Dipoto the place he seems to be simply sitting on his arms.  Is that this an excessively harsh evaluation and are their causes to hope they received’t squander this window?
2:06
Ben Clemens: I feel that the way in which this works out properly for them is that if they’re proper
2:07
Ben Clemens: if pitchers actually are this mujch extra invaluable than everybody else with workforce management, and so they can truly hit on a couple of pitchers
2:07
Ben Clemens: hitters* somewhat
2:07
Ben Clemens: Principally, the M’s have been tilting in direction of a worldview of “we worth pitchers extremely extremely and apart from Julio simply make investments the scraps in hitters” from each a commerce and free company perspective
2:07
Ben Clemens: if that worldview is true? they’ll do properly
2:08
Ben Clemens: to date, they haven’t been proper. They’ve hoarded these pitchers and whereas they pitch properly, they haven’t hit sufficient for it to work
2:08
Ben: Can the Twins get Stop and dump Vasquez’ wage with out giving up Jenkins or Rodriguez?
2:08
Matt: What do you see the Twins doing this offseason? It appears they haven’t any clear holes to fill and restricted payroll area, however I can’t think about them simply operating it again with the identical crew.
2:08
Matt: Stop to the Twins for Vazquez, Larnach, SWR, and Andrew Morris. Who says no?
2:09
Ben Clemens: uh…. the Padres say no right here virtually for certain. I like SWR alright however he’s a mid rotation man actually. and apart from that, there’s not a lot right here for the Padres
2:09
Ben Clemens: Preller is the king of buying and selling 5 nickels for 1 / 4
2:10
Ben Clemens: he doesn’t wish to go the opposite means in offers
2:10
Caleb: Ryan Pressly – strong back-end reliever or overpaid low-to-mid leverage man? The Astros masking $5.5MM tells me it might be nearer to the latter
2:11
Ben Clemens: I feel it’s someplace in between, however i feel loads of the difficulty right here is that the Astros are reducing price range and downsizing, and he wasn’t being maximized b/c they spent a lot different cash on relievers
2:11
Ben Clemens: that plus the no commerce clause made a commerce tough, however they appear to be prioritizing cash out the door
2:11
Ben Clemens: clearly with relievers it’s all the time a crapshoot, you by no means know in the event that they’re cooked or simply had a down month
2:12
Ben Clemens: however properly, would you actually somewhat give 1/9 to Michael Soroka than Pressly? What about 1/7 to Paul Sewald? I feel these are of a chunk
2:12
Ben Clemens: Additionally: you guys are doing too properly at submitting questions, I can’t pace spherical this entire factor, however I’m gonna preserve making an attempt as a lot as potential
2:12
comish4lif: Is the Nats bullpen the worst bullpen within the NL?
Or, is it precisely the kind of bullpen that exceeds expectations?
2:12
Ben Clemens: ask me once more in six months
2:13
Ben Clemens: in different phrases, bullpens are laborious to foretell
2:13
Joe: It seems like Baseball Commerce Values estimate is the remainder of Luis Castillo’s contract is price round solely about $7M surplus worth, and that on Baltimore guys like Mountcastle, Urias or Kremer INDIVIDUALLY have comparable values, implying their mannequin would settle for 1:1 trades inside that group.   How would you assess or critique these readouts for actual life?
2:13
Ben Clemens: baseball commerce values doesn’t work
2:13
Ben Clemens: it doesn’t mannequin actual life trades or habits all that properly
2:14
Ben Clemens: i might mainly say: cease utilizing these readouts, and begin fascinated by trades critically from a perspective of provide, demand, and worth above alternative
2:14
Ben Clemens: to paraphrase Kanye West, there’s a thousand Mountcastles, there’s just one ace
2:14
Ben Clemens: Castillo is a way more standout participant than Mountcastle relative to the sphere at his place,a nd in case your mannequin says they’re the identical, it’s most likely flawed
2:14
Dan’l: Do you purchase the messaging out of the Playing cards FO? Mo’ needs to go away a clear slate for Bloom; so why didn’t they let Bloom take over earlier than this offseason (or stroll down the corridor and ask Bloom what he needs)? Or did they foresee a partial sell-off this offseason, however nobody needed to go away and now they’re caught…
2:15
Ben Clemens: I feel it’s kinda affordable; i feel an honest quantity of it’s to insulate Bloom from rising pains
2:15
Ben Clemens: they thought this offseason could be a bit extra of a downturn than it was, however Arenado used his no commerce clause after asking to get dealt in order that they obtained whipsawed
2:15
Visitor: Is there any good writing that you just or one other esteemed writer has carried out on the time worth of WAR? How a lot WAR is 3 WAR one 12 months from now price?
2:16
Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen any writing about it however I apply some linear discounting once I’m doing commerce worth stuff
2:16
Ben Clemens: that stated, WAR is fixed at 1,000 per 12 months
2:16
Ben Clemens: so like… my discounting is barely about groups caring extra concerning the current and every little thing sooner or later, each prices and advantages, being discounted
2:16
Bullock’s: I don’t understand how to have a look at a “actually can’t hit a house run however elite pace and protection” prospect and inform whether or not he might have an ideal profession like Juan Pierre, carve a spot for a couple of years like Ben Revere, or simply get caught as 4th/fifth OF as a result of main league pitchers simply won’t stroll a man that may’t harm them.
2:16
Ben Clemens: Right here’s the factor: scouts don’t both
2:16
Ben Clemens: I’ve some enjoyable analysis coming for Prospects Week that I feel will make this level with knowledge
2:16
Nickwid: What do you assume could be a very good plan for the yankees to deal with their 2b/3b situation?
2:16
Ben Clemens: signal Alex Bregman
2:17
Ross: Such a irritating offseason for the Mariners. Do you see any reasonable path to construct a division winner with reportedly solely round $11 million left to spend?
2:17
Ben Clemens: and I say this as somebody who picked the M’s to win the west in 2024
2:17
Ben Clemens: their finest likelihood is that baseball is basically variable and laborious to foretell, and the Astros certain look weaker
2:17
comish4lif: “Finest followers in baseball” – I can’t be the one with a bit schadenfreude over the Cardinals incapability to commerce Arenado or Helsley (to date)?
2:17
Ben Clemens: I used to be by no means a giant fan of the BFIB moniker even on the peak of my Playing cards fandom
2:17
Remoted Thinker: The Padres are constructed to win now and ought to be within the wild card combine.  The cash struggles are overblown.  Is senseless to commerce Stop now.  If you happen to’re out of it in June, then we are able to discuss commerce.  Agree?
2:17
Ben Clemens: They traded Soto final 12 months
2:18
Ben Clemens: AJ likes to commerce
2:18
Ben Clemens: I feel that it’s affordable to be available in the market listening, I believe that Stop is barely getting traded if somebody wants a pitcher BADLY
2:18
Ben Clemens: and that if the Padres do it, they’ll pivot among the items acquired in that commerce into win-now stuff
2:18
Ben Clemens: just like the Soto commerce, mainly
2:18
Nate: To piggyback on the AL west query…that down on the Astros now, huh?
2:19
Ben Clemens: I take a look at this roster and go huh, what elements do I feel are nice
2:19
Ben Clemens: and it’s like… Yordan? I’m into Yainer. Good bullpen. I feel Altuve can preserve combating growing older
2:19
Ben Clemens: however they’re operating out simply okay gamers at like 4 of 5 rotation spots, four-ish lineup spots
2:19
Ben Clemens: their bench is terrible
2:20
Ben Clemens: they should make some additions
2:20
Visitor: How a lot of this Padres possession lawsuit is affecting Preller’s potential to make strikes?
2:20
Ben Clemens: I do not know and actually, we received’t hear till it’s over
2:20
Connor: With their price range constraints, any likelihood a workforce can pull Tatis from the Padres?
2:20
Davey D: Do groups simply not worth the Mariners pitching very extremely? The ask of Julio or Kirby for a really mid participant like Bohm was actually stunning.
2:20
Ben Clemens: um…. yeah that wasn’t a really affordable ask, I agree
2:21
Ben Clemens: I feel that it’s a little bit of each. The M’s have extremely excessive valuations on their pitchers, and groups are clearly a lot decrease than them. However Bohm for Kirby isn’t a critical individual’s supply
2:21
Booney: How do you’re feeling concerning the entrance workplace scenario in St. Louis with Chaim Bloom because the PBOPS in ready? I’ve by no means seen an association like this and it’s bizarre to assume Mozeliak would retain full management with Bloom already within the org.
2:21
Ben Clemens: I feel that utilizing consensus to make choices is underrate
2:21
Ben Clemens: and that the Playing cards’ setup most likely works simply positive. I feel that having Bloom within the org for a 12 months to see if he gelled with folks first was good too
2:21
Ben Clemens: My most profitable workforce working environments have concerned loads of delegation of duty and overlapping mandates
2:21
Jay: Make the Pirates spend extra.
2:22
Ben Clemens: yeah….. it’s wild
2:22
Maddoning: Was the Cubs DFA of Michael Arias stunning?  He was #11 on their prospect listing
2:22
Ben Clemens: my understanding is that it’s a bizarre contractual factor
2:23
Ben Clemens: stunning however they thought he’d signal a 2025 contract and so they might outright him to the minors
2:23
Ben Clemens: he didn’t, and you may’t assign a participant and not using a 2025 contract signed to the minors
2:23
Ben Clemens: in order that they needed to commerce or launch him
2:23
Theo be Praised: I’m skeptical that Michael Busch will repeat his rookie season.  Ought to I be?
2:23
Doug: What’s a pattern Stop commerce that also permits the Padres to nonetheless compete in 25?
2:25
Ben Clemens: Stop for a deal headed by Enrique Bradfield Jr. and one ML Oriole who can contribute, after which a knock-on commerce to deal with pitching depth
2:25
Maddoning: It looks as if the league isn’t 100% shopping for into Jack Flaherty’s 2024; he wasn’t excellent earlier than final 12 months.  Is that what you’re listening to?  Sluggish marketplace for him….
2:25
Ben Clemens: yeah I feel kind of groups are shopping for extra into the center of his profession than the bookeneds
2:25
Ben Clemens: I favored Rosen’s article about how his fastball could be very mid
2:25
James: Over/underneath 0.5 playoff appearances by the Pirates whereas Skenes is a Pirate
2:25
JR: the Astros added Paredes and Walker, proper?
2:25
Ben Clemens: Imagine it or not, I, the author who’s most obsessive about Isaac Paredes of all writers, noticed that one
2:26
Ben Clemens: I feel that’s a reasonably mid workforce, and so they randomly subtracted Kyle Tucker in a 12 months the place they desperately need to compete
2:26
Jeb: straightforward reply, Doug. Stop for Adley and Gunnar.
2:26
Jeb: oh, toss in Jackson to keep away from making it lopsided. virtually missed that
2:26
Les Expos: Do you see any legs to the Jays presumably signing Alonso?
2:26
Ben Clemens: Oh, I kinda like that
2:26
Bullock’s: Analysis thought I might like to see: is it extra prone to produce a championship with 6 years of true-talent 87 win workforce or 4 years of a true-talent 93 win workforce?  2 years of a true-talent 97 win workforce?  I want to quantify how irritated to be on the GMs of Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa, Cleveland, and Minnesota.
2:27
Ben Clemens: Nice name, and I wrote this all the way down to strive later
2:27
Kevin: As a fan of baseball discuss me into the product being worthwhile when 75% of the groups aren’t incentivized to materially enhance.
2:27
Ben Clemens: I’m truly having this debate with loads of buddies on the facet proper now
2:27
Ben Clemens: right here’s my argument: that’s true of each profesisonal sport
2:27
Ben Clemens: so you must simply decide the one you take pleasure in
2:27
Ben Clemens: like, you need to escape a world of haves and have nots by going to the NFL?
2:27
Ben Clemens: hope you take pleasure in Pat Mahomes
2:28
Ben Clemens: soccer? Hope you take pleasure in that actually groups are’nt enjoying the identical sport
2:28
LimuEmu: Will the Tigers exceed their 2024 win whole or will the Plexiglass Precept lead to regression?
2:28
Ben Clemens: i feel plexiglass precept right here, sadly
2:28
Kevin: However to counter your NFL argument – see Jayden Daniels
2:28
Ben Clemens: corbin carroll made the WS in his rookie 12 months
2:28
Ben Clemens: soccer is hegemonic
2:28
Ben Clemens: basketball, LeBron flies across the nation making NBA finals
2:29
Ben Clemens: although to be honest it’s in a enjoyable transitional interval proper now
2:29
Ben Clemens: I’m sympathetic to the concept that baseball might use extra parity
2:29
Ben Clemens: all sports activities might use extra parity
2:29
Ben Clemens: loads of that invovles the house owners making an attempt
2:29
DeeBo: How a lot do Vladdy Jr and Kyle Tucker break the financial institution in free company subsequent 12 months? For some time it appeared like Soto had re-set your complete market; however he clearly was the outlier and it seems like the remainder of the market hasn’t shifted an excessive amount of off earlier valuations. For Tucker particularly, laborious to assume he will get a ton greater than somebody like Seager or Devers obtained (although Devers clearly not FA)
2:30
Ben Clemens: I feel that Vlad will outdo Tucker b/c I feel the Jays are gonna break the financial institution right here
2:30
Ben Clemens: however I feel each will register that Devers space, yeah
2:30
Ben Clemens: I agree that Soto hasn’t actually reset the entire market; he’s a novel case
2:30
Ben Clemens: so younger, so achieved at that age
2:30
JJ: If you happen to needed to maintain one commerce one from King/Stop what’s your alternative?
2:30
Ben Clemens: I feel I’d maintain King and commerce Stop however I don’t really feel strongly about that
2:30
Ben Clemens: they’re each good
2:30
DJ: What’s your sense of the park components to anticipate in Sacramento this season?
2:30
Ben Clemens: I’ve it a smidge hitter pleasant however with vast error bands
2:30
Ben Clemens: they’re altering stuff about it and it by no means performed all that offensively relative to the PCL
2:31
Ben Clemens: however it’s WAY extra offensively pleasant than Oakland, for certain
2:31
Kevin: Proper, I feel the purpose is that in MLB due to a wide range of components – house owners are incentivized to strive much less.  You don’t get nationwide publicity within the NFL in case your workforce sucks except you’re the Cowboys.  Enjoyable debate although.
2:31
Ben Clemens: yeah and but, there are an enormous swath of habitually dangerous NFL groups
2:31
Ben Clemens: additionally, counterpoint: the Jets are media darlings yearly
2:31
Ben Clemens: however I digress
2:31
Justin: What would a wage ground must be so that you can assist a wage cap, if in any respect?
2:31
Ben Clemens: I used to be considering like a 150/200 band
2:31
Ben Clemens: that wouldn’t have an effect on whole wage outlays a lot
2:32
Ben Clemens: I actually assume that shortening time to free company in conjunction wiht that will be very fascinating
2:32
Bullock’s: If I’m the Orioles, I feel I gotta leap on Bradfield as headliner for Stop.  Bradfield was precisely who I used to be considering of when asking about no-power prospects.
2:32
Ben Clemens: i imply, who the ‘ML contributor’ in that pitch is is doing loads of work
2:32
Ben Clemens: would you be into it if it was, i dunno, Mullins? I might be
2:32
Ben Clemens: would you be into it if it had been Kjerstad? no means
2:32
Ben Clemens: so I’m unsure
2:32
Bosoxforlife: I hate to see baseball turning into the NBA or NFL the place the distinction between the haves and cant’s or wont’s turns into extreme. The controversy a few wage cap goes to boost its ugly head in 2027 and I concern it’d make 1994 seem like a pleasant pleasant chat.
2:32
Ben Clemens: yeah… I feel I agree with this sentiment
2:33
Ben Clemens: I feel the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of Bob Nutting
2:33
Ben Clemens: however I completely agree that the growth of the highest finish with out commensurate growth of the low spending groups will look ugly because it continues
2:33
Phil: Do FA’s nonetheless all the time go to the best bidder? OR with $$ getting so excessive do different components (location, workforce arrange/success) make it so a participant could take a suggestion than is decrease, however, a greater scenario/nearer to dwelling?
2:33
Ben Clemens: I feel that the “let’s use metropolis as a tiebreaker” bands are getting wider
2:33
Ben Clemens: like, I might see somebody taking a $10 mil much less assure for theh proper scenario
2:33
Ben Clemens: at 140 vs 150
2:34
Ben Clemens: however you don’t try this if it’s 15 million vs 10 million
2:34
Ben Clemens: so the cash getting larger will increase high quality of life/non-monetary which means, for certain
2:34
comish4lif: Whereas had been fixing baseball – I’d wish to see some kind of “Larry Byrd Rule” in MLB.
2:34
Ben Clemens: like a luxurious tax exemption?
2:34
Ben Clemens: I don’t fairly get it
2:34
Ben Clemens: solely a handful of groups pay the tax
2:34
Starling Silver: Will the Mets discover a taker for Starling Marte in the event that they pay down a giant chunk of his wage?   Can be an improve for a number of groups unwilling to spend.  Or do the Mets like the thought of a Winker/Marte DH platoon?
2:34
Ben Clemens: I…. don’t assume they’d?
2:35
Ben Clemens: I’m questioning this query myself b/c I used to be writing about sudden declines immediately
2:35
Ben Clemens: like… we’re projecting him for 1 WAR/600
2:35
Ben Clemens: that’s ABOVE what he’s produced within the final two years
2:35
Matt: No query, simply need to thanks for these chats and all the nice work you and the workforce do!
2:35
Ben Clemens: properly thanks very a lot
2:36
Ben Clemens: I feel that FG has been killing it within the final 12 months, personallyu
2:36
splat_edc: Finest meal you’ve whipped up not too long ago?
2:36
Ben Clemens: We made a sandwich that was easy and but scrumptious. blackened hen breast (made our personal blackening combine, you possibly can search for recipes however it’s fairly easy)
2:37
Ben Clemens: shaved some carrots, few leaves of arugula, dijon mustard
2:37
Ben Clemens: completely excellent
2:37
comish4lif: In my thoughts, the Larry Byrd Rule gave groups some aid (NBA cash) within the type of a league low cost to resign their very own gamers (which could be very totally different from what the NBA truly did).
2:37
Ben Clemens: oh yeah. that model, the place the income sharing pool chips in cash to assist groups resign gamers, could be fascinating
2:37
Ben Clemens: like think about if the income sharing pool, as a substitute of being break up amongst small-market groups, was solely earmarked for offers
2:38
Ben Clemens: prefer it’s not a examine we minimize to you…. we’ll enable you c ut some checks to star gamers, however you by no means see the cash
2:38
Colton: Have you ever or anybody on the workers carried out a deep dive of Carroll’s lack of manufacturing from the shoulder pop on July sixth final 12 months to this July sixth this 12 months? He was barely beneath common within the 12 months in between and outdoors of that point interval he’s been a prime 5 participant in baseball manufacturing clever
2:38
Ben Clemens: properly, I shoved him up the commerce worth listing even when he was on that one-year hunch
2:38
Ben Clemens: I did loads of personal analysis on it, is what I’ll say
2:38
Ben Clemens: however eh, by no means wrote it up and the time has handed
2:39
Colton: Ought to add, July 6, 2023 to July 6, 2024 is the parameters
2:39
Bobbers: When’s the final time MLB had one thing like a Jimmy Butler scenario?
2:39
Ben Clemens: possibly Operation Shutdown with Derek Bell?
2:40
Ben Clemens: I really like this quote nonetheless
2:40
Ben Clemens: “If it ain’t settled with me on the market, then they will commerce me,” Bell stated. “I ain’t going on the market to harm myself in spring coaching battling for a job. Whether it is (open competitors), then I’m going into Operation Shutdown.”
2:40
spaceman: Corbin Burnes simply took a decrease deal to be an arizona together with his household a month and a half in the past.
2:40
Bencle Mens: Are the cardinals an excessive amount of in limbo? they haven’t carried out something to rebuild and haven’t signed an OF to assist contend.
2:41
Ben Clemens: I feel that they’re doing it in a Playing cards-y means as all the time. gradual and regular. I feel it’s far more about not investing extra within the main league workforce and as a substitute plowing what they do make investments into the minors
2:41
Ben Clemens: i imply, that is likely to be a bummer. however I hope they go about it full bore
2:41
DeeBo: How a lot if something are you listening to about groups experimenting with AI in scouting, prospect grades, draft modeling, and so forth.?
2:41
Ben Clemens: I’m not listening to something however I’m completely certain it’s taking place
2:41
Reds Enjoyer: Who would be the finest participant in 2025 that performed zero or mainly zero video games final 12 months and why is it Matt McLain?
2:41
Ben Clemens: I feel he is likely to be my decide
2:41
Ben Clemens: I’m an enormous McLain fan
2:42
md: does a Jack Flaherty get signed earlier than spring coaching, and if a participant like that doesn’t, what finally ends up taking place throughout the season? low cost? flyer when everybody’s elbow explodes? can’t think about a dude like that even with a mid fastball doesn’t get a pitcher of espresso
2:42
Ben Clemens: Take a look at Montgomery final 12 months, Snell, Kimbrel a couple of years in the past
2:42
Ben Clemens: usually it’s not about getting a suggestion, it’s concerning the participant not liking the supply
2:42
Ben Clemens: and that could be proper on the participant’s facet, to be clear
2:42
Ben Clemens: however like… if Flaherty determined immediately “I’ll take a one-year deal and play wherever” he’d have a deal tomorrow
2:43
Frank Trauffaut: Do you assume Kyle Hart will get an MLB deal? Every other MLB/KBO stragglers?
2:43
Ben Clemens: I feel he’ll
2:43
Ben Clemens: However rather less assured because of the whole lack of smoke on that entrance
2:43
Bullock’s: Does the Soto deal imply that MVP-caliber younger guys received’t be signing extensions for something lower than $400M now?  Like, are the offers that JRod and Witt signed already outdated as comps for Henderson / de la Cruz / Merrill?
2:43
Ben Clemens: I do assume so, yeah…. or a minimum of, for hte guys who’re up at 20, their anticipated worth has modified meaningfully
2:43
Ben Clemens: to be honest I htink that each Witt and JRod signed are good examples of how these offers ought to go sooner or later although
2:44
Ben Clemens: they’re each kinda funky and structured
2:44
Ben Clemens: notably JRod’s, tbh. with the escalators based mostly on efficiency
2:44
Ryle Tuckly: How deep of a run within the playoffs do you assume Cubs followers can moderately anticipate? WS contenders?
2:44
Ben Clemens: i imply, the median expectation must be ‘miss playoffs’
2:44
Ben Clemens: however most likely not by a ton
2:45
Ben Clemens: like, each playoff workforce is a WS contender. I feel that the Cubs are the second-best workforce within the Central, most likely not a workforce that’s gonna get a bye although
2:45
Colton: That’s honest, I do know you do a ton of analysis on various things so I used to be extra curious if you happen to had appeared into it and determined there wasn’t sufficient there for a full article or if it had been one thing that was missed. I keep in mind when the swing occurred and audibly gasped as a result of I believed he ripped it once more like he did within the minors
2:45
Ben Clemens: oh yeah… that harm occurred whereas I used to be writing up the 2023 commerce worth sequence however hadn’t locked it in hyet
2:46
Ben Clemens: and I keep in mind speaking to Meg about it for a very long time
2:46
Ben Clemens: we had been very involved that he’d simply miss a 12 months
2:46
Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: On which workforce does Arraez match finest? Mariners?
2:46
Ben Clemens: I feel the Mariners are literally a extremely dangerous match for him
2:46
Ben Clemens: they don’t have any baserunners for him to drive in… and no energy hitters to attain him when he’s on base
2:46
Ben Clemens: singles hitters are at their finest on groups which have tons of visitors on the bases
2:47
Ben Clemens: how about Arizona?
2:47
Ben Clemens: workforce stuffed with speedsters
2:47
Bosoxforlife: Are the Orioles truly solely the third finest workforce within the AL East? They don’t appear to be getting a lot from their very extremely touted crop of prospects and it seems like their window is closing earlier than it even obtained opened.
2:47
Ben Clemens: properly, to be honest, one in every of their extremely touted crop of prospects is Gunnar Henderson
2:47
Ben Clemens: and that man is superb
2:47
Ben Clemens: I feel that the wave of reinforcements that was alleged to arrive in 2024 has even been principally successful… Cowser popped and Westburg wasn’t a rookie however nonetheless was a younger contributor who took a step ahead
2:48
Ben Clemens: I feel the baseball evaluation group obtained into “the O’s can have one other mega prospect b/c they all the time do” mode after Adley and Gunnar hit. They’ve nonetheless had an extremely profitable run of changing prospects into large league contributors
2:48
Ben Clemens: I feel what we’re actually seeing right here is that you just want some outdoors help to place these groups excessive even if you happen to’re hitting at hte highest fee possible
2:49
Ben Clemens: like, no workforce in baseball has extra superstar-prospects-turned-ML-stars than the O’s, to my eye
2:50
Ben Clemens: however when your marquee free agent strikes are like Tyler O’Neill, Charlie Morton, Gary Sanchez
2:50
Ben Clemens: it’s simply very laborious to make a championship stage workforce completely out of inner choices, even if you happen to go full tank rebuild to juice the farm
2:50
Ben Clemens: there are 30 groups producing expertise. While you’re in a win-now section, not dipping outdoors your individual workforce’s expertise pool to reinforce the squad is a nasty name
2:51
RH: The place would you like Arenado to begin the 12 months?
2:51
Ben Clemens: okay, that is possibly a bit uncharitable of me
2:51
Ben Clemens: however I’m fairly over Arenado’s grandstanding
2:51
Ben Clemens: going from Cardinal for all times to I simply need to play for a winner, get me out of right here, to refusing a commerce!
2:51
Ben Clemens: b/c he “needed to let the market develop”
2:51
Ben Clemens: sir, you’re underneath contract
2:52
Ben Clemens: you had final 12 months to do this if you happen to needed to, once you negotiated for an choose out
2:52
Ben Clemens: I feel him ending up on the Playing cards and simply being an enormous grump about it
2:52
Ben Clemens: after they’d agreed to a deal to ship him to one of many two most profitable groups of hte final decade
2:52
Ben Clemens: would simply be hilarious
2:52
Rickey says: Why don’t we see extra hitters try the intense crouch batting stance to shrink the strike zone ala Rickey Henderson?  I might assume gamers struggling within the minors for years don’t have anything to lose to a minimum of strive it.
2:52
Ben Clemens: properly, as I perceive it, the minor league strike zone is now outlined by your top
2:53
Ben Clemens: so, it might be counterproductive
2:53
Ben Clemens: and I feel that’s good!
2:53
Ben Clemens: two guys who’re 6’0″ every shouldn’t have wildly totally different strike zones b/c one stands stupidly
2:53
AA: Typically I see baseball writers say issues to the extent of, “Don’t get mad on the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees possession, get mad on the house owners who sit on their piles of cash.” There’s an implicit argument that there’s one thing followers ought to do to carry these house owners accountable. Given the share of people that’ll present as much as or placed on a sport no matter whether or not the workforce’s any good or not, what do you assume followers can do (if something) to stress these house owners past calling them low cost on Twitter?
2:53
Ben Clemens: sadly, I don’t actually
2:53
Ben Clemens: the system isn’t arrange in a means the place there’s an efficient strategy to push again on these guys
2:54
Ben Clemens: their cash is assured by the league, their fanbase doesn’t matter all that a lot
2:54
Ben Clemens: I want taht weren’t the case, I simply don’t see a great way to do something
2:54
Alec: If a deadline to signal free brokers had been put in place, wouldn’t it be extra useful for gamers (groups need to get to BAFO sooner, bids enhance) or house owners (groups collectively supply much less wealthy offers with shorter window of back-and-forth)? Appears like it might undoubtedly be pro-fan
2:54
Ben Clemens: I feel that it might be fairly impartial
2:54
Ben Clemens: and simply compress issues down
2:54
Justin: What’s one factor that you just assume groups (and / or fangraphs nerds) rightfully worth that your informal fan actually doesnt?   my guess is “the worth of a 40 man roster spot”.
2:55
Ben Clemens: yeah, loads of roster gimmickry
2:55
Ben Clemens: I imply, nonetheless the worth of a stroll
2:55
Ben Clemens: OBP is an effective stat
2:55
Ben Clemens: that’s nonetheless undoubtedly undervalued
2:55
Gabe: Two gamers that struggled in 2024. Noelvi Marte and Jordan Walker. Is there nonetheless hope?
2:55
Tony LaRussa: Jordan Walker, any likelihood he lives as much as expectations? Or sufficient pattern to name him a bust? He hit poorly within the minors after being despatched down
2:55
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna give each one other 12 months
2:55
Ben Clemens: however I’m down on every of them a TON
2:55
Ben Clemens: Walker’s minor league season was a extremely dangerous signal to me
2:55
Ben Clemens: take a look at ZiPS immediately… ew
2:56
Ben Clemens: and Marte, he’s in a tricky spot b/c he’ll lose his job if he’s dangerous
2:56
One thing intelligent: General opinion on AJ Preller’s total physique of labor going again to when he was first employed in SD?
2:56
Ben Clemens: excessive danger, excessive reward, I’d be blissful to have him GM my workforce b/c baseball is about leisure and he produces it
2:56
Stearns vs Boras: Which facet do you lean in direction of:  Pete Alonso is barely definitely worth the present market worth of 1B therefore the three/70 supply or Pete is one in every of a choose few gamers in MLB with a legit 50HR ceiling and ought to be paid above his perceived market worth.
2:56
Ben Clemens: I’m writing an article about this actually proper now
2:57
Ben Clemens: or properly, no, I used to be writing it at 10:59 and I’ll begin once more when the chat is over
2:57
Ben Clemens: so…. keep tuned and browse what I feel tomorrow
2:57
Quinn: You talked about Enrique Bradfield for the Padres in a Stop deal. You assume he’s prepared
2:57
Ben Clemens: however I’m not the prospect man, I’d say ask Eric
2:58
Colton Okay: What’s your repair for the Yankees at 2B/3B? I’ve been clamoring for them to signal Ha-Seong Kim all low season. Let Peraza play there till Kim comes again from harm, preserve Chisholm at 3B.
2:58
spaceman: Optionable relievers – I feel loads of informal followers don’t perceive how invaluable optionable relievers are.
2:59
Ben Clemens: yeah. that was one i thought-about earlier than I made a decision OBP was extra basic
2:59
Ben Clemens: however yeah, that’s ‘roster gimmickry’ imo
2:59
Ben Clemens: however crucial
2:59
Luis: Why have you ever usually been decrease than consensus on Jackson Holliday?
2:59
Ben Clemens: good query
2:59
Ben Clemens: I feel that loads of his projection was fairly tools-focused, I didn’t love how a lot he was hanging out within the low minors
3:00
Ben Clemens: As I discussed up above, I care rather a lot about contact metrics within the low minors
3:00
Ben Clemens: However I feel additionally, I simply am much more prepared to simply accept that prospects bust than your common prognosticator
3:00
Ben Clemens: and the hype round Holliday was at can’t-miss, surefire ranges
3:00
Ben Clemens: folks evaluating him to the most effective gamers in baseball earlier than he’d performed within the majors
3:00
Ben Clemens: so I’m simply all the time gonna be a bit lwoer than consensus when there hasn’t been any manufacturing
3:01
spaceman: the aforementioned Orioles’ new proprietor publicly calling for a wage cap he’s not spending any cash he doesn’t *have* to
3:01
Ben Clemens: I didn’t say that however dang
3:01
malcolm: The Padres certain seem to be they’ll need to transfer a excessive few excessive wage gamers earlier than the season begins – any guesses on who’s almost definitely to be despatched away?
3:01
Ben Clemens: I’m nonetheless considering Stop as a result of the marketplace for prime tier pitching is sizzling
3:01
WAR by age: Somebody on baseball reddit made a chart of probably the most WAR at every age (energetic), and the one one underneath age 28 with greater than 25 WAR was Soto at 36. However then I appeared it up, and, sure, he’s “outdated,” however Choose has 16 extra WAR in all of 61 extra video games performed. That’s gonna be a hell of a peak-heavy HOF case when all is claimed and carried out.
3:01
Ben Clemens: I feel Choose is a Corridor of Famer
3:01
Ben Clemens: with a really bizarre form for SURE
3:01
Pink Sawks: Will the Pink Sox attempt to flip Vaughn Grissom if certainly Kristian Campbell will get the 2B job?   Why precisely did they commerce Sale for him if he isn’t going to get a possibility?
3:02
Ben Clemens: I imply, plans change proper?
3:02
Ben Clemens: they traded for him b/c they thought he’d be an on a regular basis participant in 2024
3:02
Ben Clemens: heck, I favored the commerce for them. I feel he’s a very good match for Fenway
3:03
Ben Clemens: however you need to regulate to the info on the bottom, and he was dangerous in restricted time and now they’re getting crowded
3:03
Ben Clemens: I feel they’ll discover a strategy to strive him out someplace this 12 months
3:03
Ben Clemens: however y eah, the leash was shorter than I anticipated
3:03
LimuEmu: Do you see Shota Imanaga as a possible candidate for regression given his fly ball heavy method, particularly since Wrigley performed unusually pitcher pleasant in 2024?
3:03
Ben Clemens: probably not, b/c he gave up a ton of dingers
3:04
Ben Clemens: I feel the massive purpose I’d anticipate regression in run prevention is that he had an unusually excessive strand fee
3:04
Ben Clemens: however his xFIP (league common dwelling run fee utilized to fly balls) was decrease than his FIP
3:04
Ben Clemens: and in watching him, I felt like that fly ball tendency was keenly felt and a purpose he didn’t do higher
3:04
Ben Clemens: like, you possibly can think about a season the place he spikes a really low HR/FB fee and is AMAZING
3:04
Ben Clemens: however that wasn’t 2024
3:05
Ben Clemens: he was simply excellent in a means that appears principally repeatable to me
3:05
Mr. E: How’s the progress approaching the fielding metrics article?
3:06
Ben Clemens: mmmm….. sidelined till a minimum of March b/c I obtained into free agent stuff and it looks as if lots of people are altering defensive metrics or including new stuff
3:06
Ben Clemens: now I’m onto prospect stuff
3:06
Ben Clemens: in some way this offseason has been busy
3:06
Vladdy Jr: If I’ve a 12 months like my 2023 stats, will I remorse turning down the Jays extension supply?
3:06
Ben Clemens: certain. however you probably have a 12 months like your 2024 stats, you’ll really feel like a genius
3:06
Bighen: Why don’t the Mets simply announce what they’ve provided Alonso.  4 years $100M ought to work for each side.  And inform boras to beat it.
3:06
Dodgers fan: Will we see the free spending padres ever returning? I benefit from the SD/LA rivalry and hate seeing the padres need to commerce off Stop or King and never signal any large free brokers
3:06
Ben Clemens: I feel it’s undoubtedly potential
3:06
Ben Clemens: the succession squabble there may be making every little thing very complicated
3:07
Ben Clemens: however to be honest, the Padres are nonetheless operating a pretty big payroll for 2025
3:07
Ben Clemens: ninth in baseball, second within the NLW
3:07
Ben Clemens: that ought to make Giants followers VERY sad, btw
3:08
MLB fan: will we see mlb growth quickly or will they use Nashville as ransom for extra tax payer funds  in TB?
3:08
Ben Clemens: por que no los dos
3:08
Alf: A premise that underlies among the wage cap arguments is that groups ought to be worthwhile, which I’ve all the time questioned. Do you assume the game might be wholesome if groups are money-losing toys for billionaires?
3:08
Ben Clemens: I are likely to agree, and likewise, a minimum of backward wanting, these groups have all been outrageously gifted
3:09
Ben Clemens: whoops, outrageously worthwhile
3:10
LenFuego: I suppose 6 years in the past the Mets ought to have saved Alonso within the minors for a couple of weeks (or no matter it took) to maintain him from accruing that league 12 months of service time?  I hear all of the ‘manipulating service time’ discuss and I’ve to snigger on the naivete.
3:10
Ben Clemens: The Alonso one was kinda foolish, I agree, I believed the Mets principally did properly by him. However uh…. I don’t see how that has any bearing on the current
3:11
Ben Clemens: like… they’d have extra leverage in the event that they’d behaved otherwise up to now, for certain
3:11
Ben Clemens: that totally different habits would have been anti-competitive, making their workforce worse on goal that 12 months
3:11
Trent: Is Preller on the recent seat if the Padres play .500 ball this 12 months?
3:11
Theo be Praised: Looks as if the Cubs went for innings quantity by signing Boyd ($15 mil) and Rea ($5 mil), buying and selling for Pressly ($8.5 mil price).  Would they’ve been higher served consolidating spend to 1 high-end pitcher?
3:11
Ben Clemens: I favored their plan truly
3:12
Ben Clemens: I feel that the way in which the market broke this 12 months, the most effective place to get pitching was the center
3:12
Ben Clemens: I feel that in earlier years, they’ve gone that means an excessive amount of. Jameson Taillon, hi there
3:12
Ben Clemens: however this 12 months was a very good 12 months to be in search of the center
3:12
dylan carlson: mike elias free company technique: signal all the previous cardinals outfielders
3:12
Mike Elias: Orioles offseason sufficient to repair postseason woes?
3:13
Ben Clemens: I imply… .they didn’t do something, haha
3:13
Ben Clemens: they’re undoubtedly worse than they had been in 2024
3:13
Ben Clemens: I”m our offseason tracker right here, and yeah, Santander to TON is a downgrade, Burnes to Morton/Sugano is a downgrade, and uh….
3:13
Ben Clemens: that’s it?
3:13
Ben Clemens: in the event that they succeed, it received’t be b/c of their offseason
3:13
Ben Clemens: it’ll be b/c their workforce has a ton of fine gamers that had been already on the roster
3:13
O’Honk: Did you might have any ideas on the Pink Sox and Pirates swapping Nick Yorke for Quinn Priester final 12 months ? I noticed it as a problem commerce of fellows with down shares since their prime 100 prospect days. However in his rating this morning Keith Regulation truly had Yorke nonetheless within the mid 50s.
3:14
Ben Clemens: I’ve some ideas, however I don’t assume they’re particualrly clever. I’m a giant Yorke man b/c he had an superior card in Out of the Park a couple of years in the past
3:14
Ben Clemens: and I’m down on Priester b/c I’ve pitching prospect fatigue
3:14
Preller for a day: Would you commerce King, Stop, and Arraez and use the commerce returns + financial savings to fill holes? If sure, the place would you spend the cash?
3:14
Ben Clemens: I might commerce Arraez if there have been worth available
3:14
Ben Clemens: I feel he’s a correctly compensated participant
3:15
Ben Clemens: strong common, not a constant all star, spike-level All Star seasons possible. that’s what he’s getting paid
3:15
Ben Clemens: however I feel groups principally agree with my valuation and thus there most likely isn’t a house run deal available. If there have been no price range constraints, I’d mainly simply set excessive costs on my pitchers and see if groups get determined. And in any other case, roll with the present squad, who had been fairly good in 2024
3:16
J: Simply throwing on the market that Jameson Taillon tied Luis Castillo in WAR final 12 months. He’s not price that contract the following two years, however he’s been positive/
3:16
Ben Clemens: I’m most likely extra down on Taillon than is merited
3:16
Ben Clemens: I’d clearly favor Castillo however Taillon isn’t dangerous
3:16
Ben Clemens: I feel the difficulty is extra that the Cubs have been constantly aiming for hte center in free company for some time
3:16
Ben Clemens: and he was a symptom
3:16
Ben Clemens: it lined up with the market this 12 months
3:17
Ben Clemens: however that is likely to be a damaged clock being proper two instances a day sort of factor the place they all the time attempt to get the mid pitchers, and htis 12 months the mid pitchers are simply those I’d need
3:17
Jaded Nats Fan: Is it time to fret about Keibert Ruiz?
3:17
Ben Clemens: No. That was 2023
3:17
Ben Clemens: It’s time to surrender on Keibert Ruiz
3:17
Mike Elias: would Kjerstad, McDermott and a comp decide for Stop be honest for each groups?
3:18
Ben Clemens: I don’t know sufficient about McDermott to say for certain however I feel it’s a bit gentle to my eyes
3:18
Ben Clemens: however actually in the suitable ballpark
3:19
Ben Clemens: I is likely to be behind the instances on McDermott, simply, a 26-year-old rookie with out outrageous numbers, I’m skeptical
3:19
tiaager: Bregman actually going again dwelling?
3:19
Ben Clemens: it’s gonna be bizarre in that case
3:19
Ben Clemens: the place does Paredes play?
3:20
Ben Clemens: like, the Astros want outfielders badly
3:20
Ben Clemens: it’s the weak level of their roster
3:20
Ben Clemens: and so they…. traded away top-of-the-line 5 outfielders in baseball, signed two infield nook guys, and are closing in on a 3rd
3:20
Ben Clemens: possibly they assume Yordan is an on a regular basis LF?
3:20
Thanks for the chat!: May the Larry Hen rule go the opposite means? Small market groups get so as to add 10% in direction of minimal luxurious tax or one thing?
3:21
Ben Clemens: I don’t fairly perceive how this is able to work…. we’re saying ‘hey Pirates, if you happen to signal Paul Skenes, we’ll allow you to spend little or no cash on the remainder of the roster and never penalize you’?
3:21
Ben Clemens: that looks as if a nasty plan for everybody
3:21
Ben Clemens: and one which no house owners would actually get behind
3:21
Ben Clemens: those who don’t need a wage ground aren’t going to be mollified by the league saying ‘however if you happen to signal stars to large contracts, we’ll allow you to ignore the ground a bit’
3:21
Ben Clemens: they don’t signal stars to large contracts!
3:21
O’Honk: How do you’re feeling concerning the Nats’ rebuild post-Soto? Do you consider of their rising younger core of Wooden, Crews, and so forth.?
3:22
Ben Clemens: I’m into it for certain. Very very excessive on each Crews and Wooden. I feel that the true query is how they’re gonna transition from ‘we’ve some enjoyable younger gamers on a really dangerous workforce’ to being good
3:23
Ben Clemens: I don’t have loads of confidence that they understand how to do this, and the Lerners are spending zero {dollars} on the workforce proper now
3:23
Thanks for the chat!: I don’t know if Arenado was grandstanding with the remark. He has the suitable to invoke the no commerce and possibly didn’t need to go to Houston. He might have been echoing the entrance workplace of their suggestions that alternatives he’s in search of aren’t there as of now, so could have to attend.
3:23
Ben Clemens: oh, he undoubtedly does
3:23
Ben Clemens: and he has the suitable to publicly say he needs out after which invoke the no commerce clause
3:23
Ben Clemens: that’s why he obtained the cluase
3:23
Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he broke any guidelines… I’m simply saying it’d be humorous to see him say he needs to go, have the Playing cards discover a deal, after which not go
3:24
Bosoxforlife: The Astros signal Bregman then commerce Paredes to the Pink Sox. There might be no extra good match than Paredes, who hits nothing however flies to left in Fenway.
3:24
Ben Clemens: the primary counterpoint is that possibly Houston is even higher for that profile, which is why they traded for him within the first pacde
3:24
Chip: Any hesitation on Andres Munoz this 12 months?
3:24
Ben Clemens: sure. Specifically, he’s a reliever
3:24
QB: Let’s say the Astros resign Bregman, shifting Paredes to 2B, Altuve to LF. How do you consider/quantify the worth of resigning Bregman contemplating he moved two gamers off their pure place? Even when Bregman is sweet, it looks as if it might be a web impartial
3:25
Ben Clemens: fairly in depth query for a chat however briefly, I feel I’d do a series esitmation of how a lot every hurts the workforce to play out of place
3:25
Ben Clemens: I feel on this case it’d truly be rather a lot. Altuve is declining defensively and studying a brand new place at his age is hard, a lot of his worth at second base is probably going instinctual
3:25
Ben Clemens: Paredes at second? I might be masking my eyes, and I really like Paredes
3:25
Ben Clemens: I feel Paredes DH Yordan LF, or Paredes LF, makes extra sense
3:25
Ben Clemens: notably with the quick porch
3:26
Ben Clemens: Matt, we’ve missed you
3:26
Alec: Can we resolve all of the Astros hypotheticals and simply collectively buy, say, 10 million hot-and-ready pizzas so he can go to Detroit?
3:26
Ben Clemens: joy
3:26
tortycraig: Recognize the feedback on Cardinals FO decision-making dynamics. A lot handwringing this offseason on ‘properly who’s actually making the calls’ and it’s like, all of them lol. Like folks could make joint choices, there might be delegation, there might be consensus and so forth.
3:26
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m shocked folks appear so greatly surprised by this
3:26
Ben Clemens: I heard the announcement and was ilke oh this is sensible to me
3:26
JJ Picollo: Am I going to commerce for an outfielder or is MJ Melendez going to be the beginning LF for no good purpose apart from inertia
3:27
Ben Clemens: man…. I used to be first gonna say ‘however there’s no area for Melendez, who I feel is decen,t on the bench’
3:27
Ben Clemens: uh, there may be
3:27
Ben Clemens: that’s a dicey bench. so sure, you completely SHOULD
3:28
Ben Clemens: and I feel that even when it’s a late-career veteran or reclamation challenge, one thing will occur
3:28
Choose: I imply sure he’s very uniquely formed
3:28
Ben Clemens: double which means was intentional there
3:28
Mike: Who will the Dodgers commerce to make room for Kirby?
3:28
James: What slash line do you see Jacob Wilson producing in a full season?
3:28
Ben Clemens: oh man…. I don’t have a powerful prediction however my minor league mannequin (retired, bless its coronary heart) liked him at each flip
3:29
Ben Clemens: it was about predicting probabilities of sticking within the bigs and didn’t do translations or line projections, so ehhhh…unsure concerning the specifics
3:30
Ben Clemens: I’d take the underneath on Steamer’s 120 wRC+, which might have him as mainly a perennial All Star, however possibly ZiPS and its 111 OPS+?
3:30
Ben Clemens: That’s like a borderline All Star
3:30
ML: introduce a wage cap and cut back the reserve clause to 4 years; who would say no first, the house owners or MLBPA?
3:30
Ben Clemens: I feel that the reserve clause is an even bigger deal to them than the cap is to the gamers
3:30
Ben Clemens: each side would say no, although
3:30
Robbie Boyfred: May you see the gamers union agreeing to a fifth tier of luxurious tax and an offseason two month signing freeze in favor of MLB including a twenty seventh roster spot? With fashionable pitcher/catcher utilization and gradual off season, these modifications would profit all.
3:31
Ben Clemens: I might. I don’t assume that the league workplace would really like it, although. They’re making an attempt to combat towards the way in which pitcher utilization is gonig, an additional roster spot is a bizarre strategy to go about that
3:31
O’Honk: Brewers could be an ideal commerce match for the Royals if they may line up. Yelich most likely higher principally DH’ing now besides, Garrett Mitchell appears out there with Chourio, Frelick, and Perkins additionally filling out the depth chart.
3:31
Ben Clemens: Yeah. I suppose I don’t see what the Brewers need from the Royals that the Royals need to commerce
3:31
Ben Clemens: however I agree with the considering
3:31
Anselm: The Yankees appear to have some religion in Volpe/Wells/Jasson taking leaps this 12 months, and possibly really feel the identical with Gil/Schmidt — whereas additionally getting a full season from Jazz, who hopefully stays wholesome. Yankee followers on-line bemoan the workforce not matching $$ with LA — do you consider the workforce as weirdly conservative with their spending limits, or do you see some sensibility of their planning? I want they’d another IF, however the Kim/Bregman/Arenado choices all appear fairly flawed….
3:32
Ben Clemens: I feel that they’re being very long-term sensible at a time the place they’ve the most effective participant in baseball on the tail of his prime
3:32
Ben Clemens: there’s a mismatch right here between how I understand the incentives (construct an ideal workforce for 2025/2026, b/c for certain that you’ve Aaron Choose playign nice) and the way they understand them (construct a long-term sustainable system  by not taking over any dangerous dangers)
3:33
Ben Clemens: if I’m proper, their habits is inaccurate b/c they’re not bunching up their surplus worth within the years the place they’ve an ideal workforce. in the event that they’re proper, properly, they’re proper
3:33
Choose: Good joke. I really feel like Choose is way likelier to have a Chipper or Ortiz again half the place he simply hits however misses 40 g a 12 months than out of the blue turns into dangerous
3:33
Ben Clemens: the man is simply an elite hitter even if you happen to ignore the outlier energy
3:33
Ben Clemens: his command of the strike zone has advanced impressively
3:34
Ben Clemens: alright, this was a VERY dense hour and a half of chatting, and I nonetheless left round 60 questions on the bench
3:34
Ben Clemens: that was actually enjoyable, although, let’s do that once more someday
3:34
Ben Clemens: thanks a lot for popping out and chatting immediately, everybody
3:34
Ben Clemens: and now that we obtained Matt Damon again, I’m simply hoping for the man who asks the lunch query to return as properly
3:34
Ben Clemens: Have an exquisite week, and I’ll discuss to you once more quickly

 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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