With the Dodgers arguably in want of not less than two outfielders — resulting from Mookie Betts returning to the filth — the crew seemed to fill in one of many few remaining holes on their 2025 roster by surprisingly signing Michael Conforto to a one-year, $17 million contract.
Michael Conforto is signing a one-year, $17M take care of the Dodgers, per supply.
— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) December 9, 2024
Michael Conforto’s $17-million take care of #Dodgers consists of an $8.5-million signing bonus. https://t.co/KneKfqILGR
— Mike DiGiovanna (@MikeDiGiovanna) December 9, 2024
After an up-and-down seven years with the Mets the place he made an All-Star crew and posted a .255/.356/.468/.824 line total, he missed the whole 2022 season after present process shoulder surgical procedure. He returned in 2023 on a two-year take care of the Giants, the place he appeared notably (and maybe predictably) diminished, placing up a .238/.322/.418/.740 line for a 105 wRC+. Mixed with below-average baserunning and protection, he put up about 2 WAR within the final two years.
All of that makes him a stunning alternative for the Dodgers, however he did submit a .352 xwOBA in 2024 in comparison with his .327 precise wOBA, which might put him up close to Teoscar Hernandez‘s 2024 manufacturing. Moreover, the final time he topped 40% in HardHit% was his 2017 All-Star season, and he had a career-high (in a full season) of 45.8% final yr. Add on that he carried a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park and a 83 wRC+ at house, and one can see the imaginative and prescient right here that some mixture of the Giants park and dangerous luck may’ve led to a comparatively mediocre season on paper that deserved higher. Moreover, he does have vital splits (not in 2024, tho), with an .838 OPS in opposition to RHP and .705 OPS in opposition to lefties in his profession, so discovering higher matchups for him on a greater Dodgers roster appears seemingly. Conforto can be three years faraway from his shoulder surgical procedure in 2025, an damage that notoriously takes time for hitters to regain energy, and that might be a boon as properly.
Michael Conforto (signed by LAD) is a lefty energy bat that had wonderful underlying metrics in 2024 whereas posting a 112 wRC+ throughout 488 PA
It is a sensible acquisition by the Dodgers https://t.co/jsfoIZYGHm pic.twitter.com/OsmsQy4Tuf
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) December 9, 2024
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So far as the contract goes, the predictions from The Athletic, ESPN, FanGraphs, and MLB Commerce Rumors have been principally much like each other.
- The Athletic: 1 yr, $10 million
- ESPN: 1 yr, $15 million
- FanGraphs: 1 yr, $10 million
- MLBTR: 2 years, $18 million
That averaged out to a 1.25-year deal value $13.25 million for an AAV of $10.6 million, so he ended up getting nearly double what was anticipated (possibly extra like 50% extra relying on deferrals). Although to be honest, most of those projections appear to have underestimated the market to date.
From a worth perspective, he’s coming off back-to-back mediocre seasons and he’s being paid like a league-average common, which looks as if a good expectation of him going ahead. It’s a signing that principally requires one to place confidence in the Dodgers entrance workplace as a result of there’s not a ton to get enthusiastic about on the floor apart from the aforementioned underlying numbers and the truth that it carries low threat with some damage bounceback upside in his age-32 season.
The potential alternative price right here appears to be the prospect at signing Juan Soto, which might be a large loss for many groups, and kinda nonetheless is for the Dodgers since he’s a generational hitting expertise. That mentioned, the Dodgers at all times gave the impression to be on the skin wanting in and extra simply doing due diligence to verify issues didn’t get bizarre. The larger difficulty is that he takes up a roster spot, and whereas the Dodgers are reportedly nonetheless concerned on Teoscar, a crew with cash to spend not filling the outlet with one of many higher gamers available on the market looks as if a possible mistake. At present, the outfield is Conforto, Andy Pages, James Outman, Chris Taylor, and a few quantity of Dalton Dashing (possibly?) and Tommy Edman, which undoubtedly doesn’t appear to be the most effective they may do. That mentioned, in the event that they do add additional, then it’s a lot much less of an issue, with Conforto primarily hoping to do a greater job than Jason Heyward did final yr.
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Actually, the signing is usually a bit stunning for now. Conforto’s contract isn’t all that related, because it’s tough to complain about such a low-risk deal, however the roster spot is effective and he’s seemingly anticipated to take put a great chunk of plate appearances. Thus, on paper proper now he represents a downgrade from what the Dodgers had final yr, and the way a lot this is sensible in all probability will depend on what they find yourself doing with Teoscar or another choice within the outfield. All of that is extra comprehensible if Conforto finally ends up occupying the potential matchup/platoon spot as an upside man as an alternative of attempting to exchange the middle-of-the-order bat whose identify is normally written in pen within the lineup. In any other case, it sorta requires lots of elements to interrupt proper for the Dodgers and religion within the entrance workplace/coaches. Although to be honest, religion in them has normally ended up being justified.