Right this moment’s mailbag will get into the Nationals’ offseason strategy, the accuracy of preseason win projections, what Andrew Painter will do that 12 months, the Royals’ outfield, how small market groups can compete, the Yankees’ third base state of affairs, the Mets’ rotation, and extra.
Steve asks:
The Nationals have now spent over $50 million on this offseason on new acquisitions. Do you want their technique of constructing depth with upside gamers with decrease $ threat per participant to maintain the books clear for the approaching years?
OTOH, they may have gone all in and met Bregman’s rumored worth of $210 million over 7 years, and had sufficient cash for Nathaniel Lowe and Ogasawara and including Finnegan, Lopez and Poche for his or her bullpen and skipped signing Sims for the bullpen and Bell for DH.
Which route do you want higher?
Simply to evaluate, the Nationals added Trevor Williams, Mike Soroka, Kyle Finnegan, Josh Bell, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, Amed Rosario, and Paul DeJong in free company at a 2025 AAV value of $38.75MM. Additionally they traded for Nathaniel Lowe, who’s incomes $10.3MM this 12 months.
Regardless of including $49MM in whole ’25 AAV, the workforce’s CBT payroll is simply $138MM. The query is whether or not 2025 is/was the time for this workforce to pounce. Proprietor Mark Lerner would not suppose so, primarily based on feedback made to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Put up. Referencing GM Mike Rizzo, here is what Lerner mentioned to Svrluga:
“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We actually want to consider it,’ for subsequent winter, we’ll discuss it,” Lerner mentioned. “Proper now, he doesn’t suppose — and I agree with him: There’s no level in getting a celebrity and paying him a whole lot of tens of millions of {dollars} to win two or three extra video games. You’ve acquired to attend till — like Jayson. Jayson was proper on the cusp of [the team] being actually good, and it took us to the following stage. That’s the perfect state of affairs. It’s at all times on our thoughts.” He paused. “You could possibly get nauseous desirous about it,” he mentioned, laughing.
Regardless of the additions, FanGraphs initiatives the Nationals for under 73 wins this 12 months. And despite the fact that – as I am going to present later within the mailbag – groups typically outplay their projection by a dozen wins, that also won’t be sufficient for a wild card.
The Nationals have three suspect lineup spots: Bell at DH, Keibert Ruiz at catcher, and Jose Tena/DeJong/Rosario at third base. Bregman alone would not make this workforce a possible contender, and he turns 31 in March. I do not suppose he match because the workforce’s Jayson Werth transfer. I doubt Nolan Arenado would’ve accepted a commerce to D.C., and he would not sense for this workforce anyway.
The Nats nonetheless owe $40MM to Ruiz and have a number of catching prospects within the pipeline, so I can see why they did not do something there. Likewise, including an even bigger bat than Bell would possibly imply 74 or 75 wins as a substitute of 73.
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