Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after an thrilling 4 matchups on Thanksgiving and Black Friday — all upsets. For the 12 remaining video games on the slate, we have you coated with what you could know.
First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat traits that could possibly be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy author Eric Moody runs via 5 gamers who’re rostered in underneath 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could possibly be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to look at and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favourite wager for Week 13. We additionally requested our NFL Nation reporters to reply questions on attention-grabbing QB conditions across the league.
Can the Steelers stick with their display screen recreation towards the Payments? Is there fantasy upside for the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence? Might the Titans and Browns each pull off upsets? Will offense be restricted within the Texans-Colts matchup? And are the 49ers involved about quarterback Brock Purdy? We dig into all of it.
Soar to:
Stat traits | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Wager of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat traits that would decide Week 13 winners
How a lot of the hole between the Giants and Patriots is pushed by their schedules?
The Giants (2-10) and Patriots (10-2) aren’t even in the identical stratosphere within the standings. And the superior numbers are keen on the Patriots, who’ve the No. 1 passing offense by way of EPA per dropback. However ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index nonetheless believes there is a a lot smaller hole between these two groups taking part in Monday due to energy of schedule.
No crew has performed a better schedule than the Patriots … and no crew has performed a more durable schedule than the Giants. And on the snaps with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart on the sector, the crew’s EPA per play is 0.07, roughly tied with the Seahawks as Tenth-most environment friendly.
Can the Payments cease the Steelers’ display screen recreation?
The Steelers love a display screen, operating them on the second-highest charge within the league (6%). And it has been an environment friendly a part of their offense, with the crew averaging 0.10 EPA per display screen — higher than their common EPA per dropback.
On a per-play foundation, no protection has been higher at stopping display screen performs than Buffalo. Its opponents are averaging minus-0.52 EPA per display screen play and a 21% success charge on them, each the bottom charges towards any protection. Granted, the pattern towards the Payments is tiny (19 performs), however it may trigger Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to not lean on certainly one of his favourite levers Sunday.
Will 49ers left deal with Trent Williams be capable to cease Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett?
We’re getting a Corridor of Fame matchup within the trenches Sunday. Who has the sting? At every of their peaks, it may need been robust to say. However proper now, Garrett is the clear reply.
The Cleveland edge rusher is nicely on his solution to profitable Defensive Participant of the Yr, and he’s threatening the single-season sack document (22.5) with 18.0 already. In the meantime, Williams’ move safety numbers have slipped a little bit bit this season. After ending first amongst tackles in move block win charge in 2023 and second in 2024, his 2025 PBWR ranks twentieth. The Browns will want Garrett to have success towards Williams for an opportunity at upsetting the 49ers.
Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers you could choose up — and might begin this week
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (30.2% rostered)
Lawrence has offered regular low-end QB1 manufacturing since Week 1, averaging 18.0 fantasy factors per recreation. He hasn’t hit 300 passing yards but this season, however that would change towards a Titans protection that ranks in the course of the pack in fantasy factors allowed to quarterbacks. Lawrence is in a good spot right here for managers who want QB.
Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans (28.4% rostered)
Higgins has quietly turn into a reliable fantasy choice, rising as Houston’s clear No. 2 receiver with a minimum of seven targets in 4 of his previous 5 video games. He scored three touchdowns throughout that stretch and has averaged 12.8 fantasy factors since Week 10. Now Higgins will get beginning quarterback C.J. Stroud again towards a Colts protection that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy factors per recreation to large receivers.
Devin Neal, RB, New Orleans Saints (27.6% rostered)
Neal is positioned to take over the Saints’ backfield after operating again Alvin Kamara injured his knee in Week 12. Neal noticed a season-high 12 touches towards the Falcons and has elevated his scrimmage yards in 5 straight video games. New Orleans is probably going to offer the rookie a full workload to see what it has, and he attracts a Dolphins protection that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs this season.
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Is Devin Neal a precedence fantasy add for Week 13?
Daniel Dopp explains why Devin Neal just isn’t a precedence for fantasy rosters however continues to be backup RB in Week 13.
Chimere Dike, WR, Tennessee Titans (16.0% rostered)
Dike has emerged as Tennessee’s prime receiving choice with Calvin Ridley out for the season and Elic Ayomanor battling a hamstring harm. He led the crew with seven targets in Week 12, turning them into 21.4 fantasy factors (thanks partly to a punt return landing). Dike has had a minimum of 16 fantasy factors in three of his previous 5 video games regardless of the Titans’ struggling passing recreation. With sturdy goal quantity and added particular groups upside, he is a viable flex towards Jacksonville, particularly in deeper codecs.
Brenton Unusual, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (15.6% rostered)
Unusual returned from a monthlong hip harm in Week 12 and instantly reclaimed his function because the Jaguars’ prime move catcher, main Jacksonville with 93 yards towards the Cardinals. He has had a minimum of 59 yards in three of his six video games this season, and he’s necessary to the Jaguars’ offense as a powerful blocker. Unusual is a low-end TE1 towards the Titans.
Solak: Do not be shocked if …
The Titans upset the Jaguars
Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has performed the 2 finest video games of his profession previously two weeks. And so they got here towards stiff competitors within the Texans and Seahawks. Now, he will get a Jaguars protection that may get strain however struggles to truly sack cell quarterbacks like him.
As long as Ward avoids turnovers, the Titans’ offense ought to discover factors. On the opposite aspect of the ball, the defensive deal with duo of Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat ought to decelerate the Jaguars’ operating recreation and drive the ball into Lawrence’s arms.
The Browns upset the 49ers
On a wet and windy day in Cleveland, the elite Browns protection shall be favored. This recreation would possibly come all the way down to who runs the soccer higher, and whereas San Francisco operating again Christian McCaffrey is getting handoffs at an elite clip, he is not breaking tackles or producing explosive runs like he as soon as did. In sloppy situations, Brock Purdy may additionally be vulnerable to a turnover or two. This recreation shall be determined by area place and particular groups, with one large play late.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense look elite once more
Defensively, the Payments are constructed to make you dink and dunk the soccer towards their smooth zone coverages — however that is the popular play model for Rodgers, who is about to return from a left wrist fracture. The Payments even have tackling points, and each Steelers move catcher is a tackle-breaking menace. And at last, Pittsburgh can run the ball with heavy personnel, which has been Buffalo’s kryptonite for years. Josh Allen had higher rating factors, as a result of Rodgers’ Steelers certain will.
Bowen: Key matchup to look at
Texans defensive finish Will Anderson Jr. vs. Colts offensive deal with Braden Smith
Search for Texans coach DeMeco Ryans to scheme his fronts, creating one-on-one pass-rush matchups for Anderson on this key AFC South matchup. Anderson was relentless within the Texans’ Week 12 win over the Payments, recording 2.5 sacks and 5 pressures on Allen. That introduced Anderson’s season totals to 10.5 sacks and 36 pressures, whereas his move rush win charge sits at 24% (third highest within the NFL).
Smith has allowed six sacks this season, and his move block win charge of 90.2% ranks thirty third amongst offensive tackles. Smith shall be essential in preserving the pocket clear for quarterback Daniel Jones, as his off-target charge climbs to 25% when pressured.
Maldonado: My favourite wager for Week 13
UNDER 44.5 factors in Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Indy’s offense has a ground, and that retains this recreation sluggish. Jones has trended right into a play-action dependent passer, whereas the Texans’ protection is constructed to kill that. It’s third in completion charge allowed, second in yards allowed per move try and second in opponent landing charge.
Stroud is again for Houston’s offense, however Indy’s move protection has improved with cornerback Sauce Gardner and the return of Charvarius Ward. Each defenses will squeeze on early downs whereas the offenses stall within the pink zone, making this a transparent underneath.
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Ought to fantasy managers be frightened about Jonathan Taylor?
Area Yates and Mike Clay talk about their degree of fantasy fear for Jonathan Taylor.
NFL Nation: QB questions
What is the newest on C.J. Stroud‘s return, and the way have the Texans regarded with out him?
Stroud will return towards the Colts on Sunday. It will likely be his first begin in three video games, so count on some rust in a significant matchup with divisional implications. Happily for the Texans, they went 3-0 within the video games Stroud missed, which stored them in playoff rivalry. Credit score goes to their protection, which averaged 12.5 factors towards previously two video games. And do not forget two game-winning drives by quarterback Davis Mills within the three-game stretch. — D.J. Bien-Aime, Texans reporter
Are the 49ers involved about Brock Purdy‘s two begins again from harm?
The quick reply: Not likely. The Niners and Purdy had been happy with how he fared towards Arizona in his return, and although he threw three first-half interceptions towards Carolina, coach Kyle Shanahan stated he was superb with the selections and Purdy was only a bit late on the throws. For his half, Purdy stated he wasn’t “driving” the ball in addition to he may. This week, he expounded on it after watching the movie, noting that he must set his toes higher and throw with extra anticipation in an effort to remove a few of these expensive turnovers.
“It is simply reps and taking part in soccer once more and getting again into it,” Purdy stated. “However there’s additionally some good performs that I’ve made too. I am unable to simply say as a result of I threw three picks in a single half my timing and every little thing’s off. It is give or take with all that.” — Nick Wagoner, 49ers reporter
Might the Raiders take a look at different choices underneath middle for the ultimate stretch?
Coach Pete Carroll did one thing uncharacteristic when he parted methods with two coordinators (Chip Kelly and Tom McMahon) within the span of 16 days. So at this stage of the season, it would not be stunning if the Raiders take a look at different choices at quarterback if Geno Smith continues to pile up the interceptions.
For now, Smith’s job is protected. It is price seeing how Smith and the offense look underneath interim playcaller Greg Olson. Maybe the transfer may get the 35-year-old quarterback on monitor through the closing six video games. Both approach, the Raiders might want to take a critical take a look at the place within the offseason. Smith has regressed, and Las Vegas could possibly be able to pick one of many prime quarterback prospects within the 2026 NFL draft. — Ryan McFadden, Raiders reporter
