
The Toronto Blue Jays have lastly signed a free agent slugger, agreeing to a five-year, $92.5 million take care of outfielder Anthony Santander on Monday afternoon. A former Rule 5 select of Cleveland, Santander has spent his entire main league profession with the Baltimore Orioles. He’s amassed 9.6 WAR, 155 residence runs, and a 113 wRC+ in 2,830 plate appearances since his 2017 debut, however these numbers are additionally dragged down a bit by the actual fact it took him a couple of years to essentially get going as a hitter. For the reason that begin of 2022, his age-27 season, he’s been price 8.3 WAR and posted a a lot sunnier 124 wRC+. This previous 12 months was the most effective full season of his profession to date; he slashed .235/.308/.506 and set profession highs with 44 homers, a 129 wRC+, and three.3 WAR en path to incomes his first All-Star choice and Silver Slugger award.
Anthony Santander and Blue Jays are in settlement pending bodily, sources say. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 20, 2025
Santander’s deal features a membership possibility for 2030 and an opt-out after the 2027 season, in line with a number of reviews. The membership possibility is a conditional one; if Santander chooses to choose out, Toronto can void his choice as long as it tacks on the sixth 12 months, which might carry the full worth of the contract to $110 million. The choices right here don’t change the calculus of the deal all that a lot. Contemplating Santander is already 30 and doesn’t supply way more than his energy, he in all probability gained’t danger the safety of his contract except his manufacturing with the Jays exceeds what he did with the Orioles — and even then, he may fairly keep put. Equally, the Jays in all probability gained’t train their possibility for the sixth 12 months except he continues to be a viable middle-of-the-order slugger into this mid-30s.
Aside from crushing homers, Santander doesn’t have an thrilling set of abilities, however he’s additionally higher than your typical one-dimensional slugger. His protection isn’t good, however he isn’t a catastrophe within the outfield. He will get essentially the most out of his energy as a result of he doesn’t pound pitches into the bottom, and his capability to make contact is best than his low on-base proportion would recommend. He’s a change hitter who is nice in opposition to pitchers of each handedness; he has a profession 116 wRC+ in opposition to lefties and a 111 wRC+ vs. righties. He additionally doesn’t wrestle in opposition to any specific pitch kind way more than others. Altogether, he’s definitely not as harmful on the plate as a few of the recreation’s extra full energy hitters, however he doesn’t have an apparent weak point, and opposing groups can’t exploit him with particular matchups.
Santander heads to Toronto at a time when the franchise is a bit on the crossroads. The Blue Jays missed the playoffs final season, and though they’ve made the postseason in three of the previous 5 years, they have been swept out of the Wild Card spherical every time. Now, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette each set to achieve free company after this season, Toronto is pushing arduous to construct up its roster for what may very well be its closing run with the 2 stars. Up to now, although, the Jays have fallen brief of their makes an attempt to reel in marquee free brokers. Positive, these are efforts of the actual form, not the stabs at midnight that groups make sometimes — similar to the insultingly low deal the White Sox supplied Manny Machado in early 2019. Alas, not like second graders studying spelling and math, there aren’t any factors for making an attempt in baseball.
Understanding this, Santander’s addition is definitely a disappointment for Toronto followers, particularly contemplating the opposite free brokers the group focused however did not signal these previous two offseasons, most notably Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. However it will be flawed to say Santander is nothing greater than a big-ish title comfort prize. As I discussed above, he’s a succesful energy hitter with a reasonably excessive ground.
Whereas it’s too early to say precisely how the Jays will use him defensively, my preliminary expectation is that Santander will see time at each designated hitter and in proper area fairly than enjoying both position completely. George Springer is penciled in as Toronto’s beginning proper fielder, and he’s nonetheless in all probability a greater defender than Santander. That mentioned, Springer is now 35 and has handled accidents and a few age-related decline over the previous few seasons. With Santander round, the Jays can provide Springer some DH days with out having to take some thump from their lineup; as a substitute, two gamers will merely swap positions. The Jays may additionally play both Santander or Springer in left area, with the opposite one in proper. The protection would in all probability endure a bit with each of them on the corners, however this could permit for Will Wagner to be Toronto’s major DH. And there’s additionally the chance that the Blue Jays add one other bat. They’ve been linked to Pete Alonso, and in the event that they signal him, he would in all probability be their on a regular basis DH except they determined to start out Guerrero at third. We’ll have a greater thought what their lineup will seem like in two months.
Let’s run the ZiPS projections for Santander.
ZiPS Projection – Anthony Santander
12 months | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | .249 | .320 | .495 | 565 | 80 | 141 | 32 | 1 | 35 | 99 | 54 | 130 | 2 | 127 | 2.7 |
2026 | .249 | .321 | .487 | 542 | 75 | 135 | 31 | 1 | 32 | 91 | 53 | 125 | 2 | 125 | 2.5 |
2027 | .241 | .314 | .460 | 518 | 69 | 125 | 29 | 0 | 28 | 82 | 50 | 120 | 2 | 117 | 1.7 |
2028 | .238 | .311 | .442 | 484 | 62 | 115 | 27 | 0 | 24 | 73 | 47 | 114 | 1 | 111 | 1.2 |
2029 | .232 | .307 | .419 | 427 | 52 | 99 | 23 | 0 | 19 | 61 | 42 | 104 | 1 | 104 | 0.7 |
ZiPS is fairly lukewarm on this signing, suggesting Santander is price 5 years at $70 million. There are apparent explanation why ZiPS is a bit decrease on Santander: Much less-than-elite sluggers who’re kind of one dimensional have a tendency to say no sharply within the early 30s. Nevertheless, that doesn’t imply this can be a unhealthy deal. Toronto wanted one other productive bat now, and that’s precisely what Santander must be in 2025. The Blue Jays gained solely 74 video games final 12 months, however that win whole was extra seemingly an underperformance fairly than a mirrored image of their true expertise, so we shouldn’t use that as a baseline expectation to undertaking what they’ll do within the upcoming season. ZiPS and Steamer each view Toronto as a center class workforce, not a basement dweller. Earlier than signing Santander, ZiPS projected the Blue Jays to complete with a win whole within the mid-80s, and his addition ought to increase their ground by about 1.5–2.0 wins.
By all public accounts – and I’ve definitely heard nothing totally different – the Orioles weren’t critical gamers for Santander. From a baseball standpoint, it’s comprehensible why they refrained, given their outfield choices and stable offensive depth. For this Gen X Orioles fan not less than, what makes me the saddest is that Santander signed with Toronto. Throughout my youth, the Blue Jays have been arguably Baltimore’s largest divisional rival, not the Purple Sox or the Yankees. The Jays took all of the enjoyable out of the 1989 “Why Not?” season in Baltimore, and I’m nonetheless sort of aggravated, greater than 30 years later, that Blue Jays then-manager Cito Gaston didn’t use Mike Mussina within the 1993 All-Star Recreation in Baltimore. I used to be at that recreation, and I used to be one of many followers close to the bullpen booing as loudly as I may.
Other than making 15-year-old Dan very indignant – which groups don’t care about and which has no impact on the playoff race — there’s not a lot to dislike in regards to the Santander signing. He makes Toronto a greater workforce, and that ought to make the AL East much more fascinating. Even so, the Blue Jays shouldn’t cease with Santander. One other few additions would go a good distance towards cementing Toronto’s standing as a reliable Wild Card contender.