There isn’t any doubt this yr’s free agent market has moved slower for place gamers than it has for pitchers. Whereas 17 pitchers have signed offers price at the least $5MM, solely 9 place gamers can say the identical – and 5 of them are catchers. Even with that in thoughts, the rumor mill has been surprisingly quiet for one prime free agent specifically: All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso.
MLB Commerce Rumors ranked Alonso because the seventh-best free agent of the offseason on our annual High 50 Free Brokers checklist. He was the highest first baseman obtainable and, arguably, the second-best pure hitter, behind solely Juan Soto. We predicted he’d signal a five-year, $125MM contract. But, we haven’t had many alternatives to jot down about Alonso ever since. Over the previous six weeks, the Mets are the one staff that has clearly and repeatedly expressed curiosity within the two-time House Run Derby champion. Their crosstown rivals are the one different staff to be publically linked to Alonso.
Not so way back, Alonso would have been one of the sought-after free brokers available on the market, and his potential contract would have been a lot simpler to foretell. In spite of everything, he is likely one of the strongest (and sturdy) hitters within the recreation. He has averaged 43 house runs and 112 RBI per 162 video games all through his profession. Nevertheless, groups have a look at much more than simply house runs and RBIs as of late. They’re additionally much less prone to pay for previous efficiency. Thus, as Alonso approaches his age-30 season coming off two consecutive down years, it’s not laborious to think about why groups may be hesitant to satisfy his presumptive nine-figure calls for. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about why Alonso’s contract was one of many hardest to foretell for the High 50 checklist.
Even so, it’s unimaginable to disclaim that Alonso is likely one of the premier energy hitters within the recreation. Over the previous two seasons, down years by his personal requirements, Alonso ranks fifth amongst all hitters with 80 house runs. His 121 wRC+ in that span is 21% higher than league common. Solely a handful of gamers are able to swinging the bat sooner or hitting the ball tougher than the Polar Bear. In different phrases, he’s nonetheless going to discover a profitable contract this winter, even when he has to attend a bit longer for his market to warmth up.
Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at each staff’s possibilities of signing Alonso.
Doubtless Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Astros: The Astros freed up some payroll (roughly $8.9MM) by buying and selling star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and taking up third baseman Isaac Paredes, amongst others, in return. Including Paredes received’t essentially cease Houston from pursuing Alex Bregman, since Paredes may slide over to first base in deference to Bregman, the superior defender. Nevertheless, this commerce makes it extra probably the Astros will look so as to add a brand new first baseman as an alternative.
Houston has wanted a brand new first baseman since optioning and subsequently releasing José Abreu earlier this yr. The staff has already expressed curiosity in Christian Walker, however Alonso may very well be one other goal, particularly if Bregman indicators elsewhere. The Astros reportedly provided Bregman a six-year, $156MM deal earlier this winter. It’s no shock Bregman turned that quantity down, however it might in all probability be sufficient to land Alonso. That’s to not say the Astros could be keen to spend the identical quantity for Alonso as they’d for Bregman, however at the least it means that GM Dana Brown has the required funds to get a deal achieved.
Mets: The Mets have at all times appeared like sturdy contenders to retain their homegrown slugger. Though successful the Juan Soto sweepstakes could have decreased the stress on David Stearns to make some other massive additions to the offense, it’s not as if signing Soto precludes the Mets from re-signing Alonso. For one factor, the staff’s projected payroll for 2025 continues to be far beneath the place it was in 2023 and ’24. There may be a payroll quantity even Steve Cohen received’t spend previous, however Stearns has tens of hundreds of thousands to work with earlier than that might probably turn out to be a problem.
Stearns additionally wants to consider how he’s going to handle the holes at first base and DH that free brokers Alonso and J.D. Martinez left behind. Mark Vientos is an choice to play first, however he held the third base job in 2024. His protection was graded poorly there however the Mets may very well be higher off if Vientos can maintain down a extra beneficial defensive place. Final week, Cohen famous that the Mets are “nonetheless engaged” in contract discussions with Alonso.
Nationals: There’s a motive why Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald all predicted Alonso would signal with Washington on our High 50 checklist. A number of promising younger Nationals gamers took massive steps ahead in 2024. Maybe that can encourage possession and the entrance workplace to make an enormous splash this offseason because the Nats look to get again into rivalry. Keibert Ruiz is at the moment the one participant on the roster with a assured contract, and RosterResource estimates the membership’s 2025 payroll is at the moment $52MM decrease than the staff’s closing payroll in 2024.
Moreover, first base is extensive open in Washington. Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, who mixed to play greater than 100 video games at first for the Nationals this previous season, are out of the group. Juan Yepez is the almost certainly inside choice to play first base in 2025, however he has not achieved sufficient over components of three massive league seasons to warrant an on a regular basis position. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has mentioned the membership is in search of middle-of-the-order bats and Alonso would definitely match the invoice.
Yankees: Other than the Mets, the Yankees are the one different staff to be credibly linked to Alonso. Early in November, Brian Cashman informed Mike Puma of the New York Publish that he had spoken to agent Scott Boras about his slugging consumer. Nevertheless, MLB Community’s Jon Morosi lately steered the Yankees would favor to signal a primary baseman on a shorter deal, describing Walker as “extra of a precedence.”
Nonetheless, it actually looks as if Alonso continues to be on the desk within the Bronx. That must be true even after the Yankees acquired Cody Bellinger from the Cubs on Tuesday. Bellinger can play first base, however he’s extra helpful to the staff within the outfield; he can play heart subject, permitting Aaron Decide to maneuver again to proper. Thus, this staff may nonetheless use a alternative for Anthony Rizzo at first. Ben Rice, who hit .171/.264/.349 over 50 video games in his rookie season, and DJ LeMahieu, who hit .204/.269/.259 in his age-35 marketing campaign, are at the moment the very best in-house choices.
With a projected $270MM payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource), the Yanks are nonetheless about $33MM below their closing estimate from 2024. And whereas they’ve made a number of additions, together with Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams, they nonetheless have work to do to exchange an unbelievable expertise like Soto. That’s very true relating to the offense.
Believable/On-Paper Darkish Horses
Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have cash to spend and a powerful need so as to add star energy. Alonso isn’t on the identical degree as a few of Toronto’s prime targets this winter (together with Soto, Fried, and Corbin Burnes), however presumably, the Blue Jays will preserve attempting till they signal any person in the event that they proceed to lose out on star free brokers. To that finish, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet stories that “Everybody within the [Blue Jays] group” believes the offense would look much more harmful with one other “respectable slugger.”
The one factor conserving the Blue Jays out of the “probably suitors” class is the truth that they have already got a famous person first baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Nevertheless, the 2 may cut up first and DH this coming yr with Alonso taking up at first if Guerrero leaves in free company following the 2025 season.
Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks had been probably the greatest offensive groups in MLB this previous yr, however they misplaced two of their finest hitters to free company in Walker and Joc Pederson. Alonso may assist to make up for a lot of that lacking manufacturing. Nevertheless, if the D-backs are certainly planning to maintain payroll at an analogous degree in 2025, they solely have about $24MM to spend, in keeping with the estimates from RosterResource. Which may not be sufficient for them to make a severe run at Alonso, particularly in the event that they’re planning to handle some other areas of want this winter. Then once more, GM Mike Hazen may release some money if he can discover a approach to offload Jordan Montgomery’s contract.
Giants: New president of baseball operations Buster Posey is clearly attempting to get the Giants again into rivalry as quickly as potential; he already signed Willy Adames and has expressed severe curiosity in Burnes as properly. Pitching will in all probability stay his precedence even when he misses out on Burnes. Nonetheless, if Posey is contemplating Burnes, meaning he has the funds to make a run at Alonso. LaMonte Wade Jr. was San Francisco’s major first baseman in 2024, however the staff is reportedly keen to make him obtainable in a commerce.
Reds: The Reds are the darkest horse right here. They don’t have a transparent gap at first base for Alonso, and it’s unclear how a lot they’re keen to spend this offseason. That mentioned, they might badly use the offense in the event that they need to contend in 2025. New supervisor Terry Francona may make room for Alonso at first by placing Spencer Steer in left subject, Jeimer Candelario at third, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH. And whereas Cincinnati’s entrance workplace hasn’t dedicated to growing payroll this winter, they haven’t outwardly shut down the chance both.
Tigers: Regardless of such a powerful end in 2024, the Tigers haven’t given their fanbase a lot motive to consider they’ll spend massive to enhance this winter. Nevertheless, if they’ll spend – they usually actually ought to – Alonso could be an incredible match for the lineup. POBO Scott Harris has acknowledged his staff may use one other right-handed bat and that Spencer Torkelson’s job at first base is way from safe. A dependable righty bat like Alonso could be an enormous improve over Torkelson and a powerful addition to a lefty-heavy Detroit lineup. Whereas the Tigers haven’t been massive spenders lately, they’ve run increased payrolls within the not-so-distant previous.
Unlikely/Not Occurring
Angels: The Angels have been lively this offseason, however first base doesn’t appear to be on the prime of their precedence checklist. Former first-round decide Nolan Schanuel was mediocre in his first full MLB season, however presumably, the Angels haven’t given up on the younger first baseman simply but. In the meantime, Jorge Soler is penciled in at DH, and Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Travis d’Arnaud may see a while there as properly.
Athletics: The A’s may theoretically make room for Alonso at first base/DH by having Brent Rooker play extra outfield and Tyler Soderstrom catch extra usually, however it’s removed from an ideal match. Whereas this staff may must preserve spending to keep away from an MLBPA grievance, there are higher makes use of for that cash.
Braves: With Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna as their designated hitter, the Braves haven’t any want or room for Alonso.
Brewers: The Brewers have been linked to at the least one veteran first baseman this offseason; in keeping with USA Right this moment’s Bob Nightengale, they’re interested by Paul Goldschmidt. Nevertheless, they’re not normally in play for costlier free brokers like Alonso. Milwaukee hasn’t signed a free agent for greater than $35MM or greater than three years since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. Even a modest splash on Goldschmidt may require them to dump the Rhys Hoskins contract.
Cardinals: Willson Contreras would be the Cardinals’ full-time first baseman going ahead. Even when that weren’t the case, St. Louis is very unlikely to signal any long-term contracts this winter.
Cubs: Chicago already made an enormous offensive addition this offseason, buying and selling for Tucker final week. With a purpose to make room for Alonso, the Cubs would almost certainly need to commerce first baseman Michael Busch or presumptive DH Seiya Suzuki. After buying and selling Bellinger to the Yankees, there’s no indication they’re planning to do this.
Dodgers: The Dodgers want Alonso even lower than the Braves, due to their MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and MVP DH Shohei Ohtani.
Guardians: On the uncommon events the Guardians have spent important cash in free company, it has usually been for a defensively restricted slugger – assume Josh Bell, Yonder Alonso, and Edwin Encarnacion. That mentioned, a contract for Pete Alonso would simply be the most important this entrance workplace has ever handed out to a free agent. What’s extra, Alonso would solely slot in Cleveland if the staff had been to commerce present first baseman Josh Naylor. It might appear counterproductive for the Guardians to deal Naylor and his projected $12MM wage solely to show round and signal Alonso.
Mariners: The Mariners are in search of a righty-batting first baseman, and Alonso would definitely be a pleasant offensive improve for a staff that struggled to attain runs in 2024. Nonetheless, their reported curiosity in gamers like Carlos Santana and Justin Turner suggests they aren’t out there for an even bigger free agent addition. The M’s may be planning to extend payroll in 2025, however signing an enormous title like Alonso nonetheless appears unlikely. They haven’t signed a free agent hitter to a contract price greater than $25MM since Nelson Cruz a decade in the past.
Marlins: Positive, the Marlins may use Alonso. They might use nearly each obtainable free agent. That mentioned, this staff is very unlikely to pursue any free brokers who aren’t one-year stopgaps/veterans to flip on the commerce deadline.
Orioles: GM Mike Elias has already signed his slugger to exchange Anthony Santander, and he went with outfielder Tyler O’Neill. That leaves the O’s with a little bit of a logjam at first base/DH, the place Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad may all vie for taking part in time. Elias may make a commerce to clear that up, besides, Baltimore’s payroll is already considerably increased than it was final yr, and one other massive signing for the offense appears unbelievable.
Padres: The Padres have room for Alonso, particularly in the event that they commerce Luis Arraez, they usually may use an enormous bat to exchange Jurickson Profar. Nevertheless, POBO A.J. Preller is working below tight payroll constraints this winter. Even for Preller, who at all times appears to have a shock up his sleeve, Alonso doesn’t appear to be a practical goal.
Phillies: The Phillies fall into the Braves/Dodgers camp. Their two finest hitters, Bryce Harper (1B) and Kyle Schwarber (DH), already occupy the one positions Alonso may fill.
Pirates: Just like the Nationals, the Pirates are an up-and-coming younger staff with room for a veteran bat at first base. In contrast to the Nationals, nevertheless, the Pirates have by no means been massive gamers on the free agent market. There’s an excellent likelihood they’re planning to run with current commerce acquisition Spencer Horwitz at first base in 2025.
Rangers: With the addition of Jake Burger, the Rangers don’t actually have room for Alonso within the lineup. Given their need to slip beneath the posh tax in 2025, they in all probability don’t have the payroll house both. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe has come up in free commerce rumors this offseason, however it wouldn’t actually make sense for Texas to half with the cost-controlled Lowe to signal Alonso. Each gamers have been equally productive over the previous three years. Furthermore, the Rangers are reportedly looking for a left-handed bat. Buying and selling the lefty-batting Lowe to signal the righty-batting Alonso would solely set them again in that respect.
Rays: Even when the Rays had been lastly going to shock the baseball world and signal a prime free agent to a nine-figure contract, Alonso in all probability wouldn’t be their man. In keeping with wRC+, Tampa Bay’s cost-controlled first baseman Yandy Díaz has outperformed Alonso on the plate in every of the previous three seasons.
Pink Sox: Boston already has cash to spend however a cluttered first base and DH combine. Rafael Devers is a poor defender at third and the membership has thought of shifting him over to first. However since they’ve Triston Casas there and Masataka Yoshida probably taking on lots of DH time, it’s led to rumors of Casas being obtainable on the buying and selling block. Signing Alonso could be an costly method of additional crowding that state of affairs.
Rockies: You possibly can’t fully depend out the Rockies – that is the staff that signed Kris Bryant to a $182MM deal just some years in the past – however there is no such thing as a motive to consider Colorado is in on any of the highest free brokers this yr. After Charlie Blackmon’s retirement, Bryant is prone to get a lot of the reps at DH in 2025, whereas the Rockies absolutely need to see what they’ve in Michael Toglia at first base.
Royals: The Royals may use the offense, however they’re extremely unlikely to spend what it can take to land Alonso. On prime of that, they have already got a full-time first baseman in Vinnie Pasquantino. With gamers like Jonathan India and Salvador Perez already on the roster, Kansas Metropolis in all probability isn’t in search of a full-time DH.
Twins: The Twins may use a primary baseman to exchange Carlos Santana, however Alonso is nearly absolutely out of their value vary. RosterResource already initiatives their 2025 payroll to be $12MM increased than the ultimate estimate from 2024.
White Sox: Not occurring.
Picture courtesy of Imagn.
