It should not be that troublesome. Actual Madrid are the world’s most profitable membership, the reigning LaLiga and European champions. Vinícius Júnior is considered one of their brightest stars, final 12 months’s Ballon d’Or runner-up and FIFA’s The Greatest winner. His targets helped Madrid win two of the final three Champions League finals. So why is there nonstop hypothesis that Vinícius, who’s solely 24, is about to go away Madrid for the Saudi Professional League? And — with the ahead’s contract on the Bernabéu resulting from expire in June 2027 — simply how seemingly is that consequence?
Hearken to Vinícius, and there appears to be little doubt that it is Actual Madrid for all times. “My subsequent step is bettering my recreation, persevering with to develop, and serving to the largest membership on the planet,” the Brazil worldwide stated final month. “I dreamed of getting right here. That is my dream, to suppose huge, and win extra trophies on this shirt.”
Vinícius handed a significant milestone in January, changing into considered one of solely 23 gamers to attain 100 or extra targets for Madrid. “It is necessary for me to be part of this membership’s historical past,” he stated. “Let’s hope I keep on right here for a lot of extra years. Ronaldo Nazario, Cristiano [Ronaldo] … they’re gamers who outlined an period at this membership. Let’s hope I can observe of their footsteps.”
These do not sound just like the phrases of a participant who’s planning an imminent departure. And chatting with Brazilian TV after Madrid’s 3-2 Champions League win at Manchester Metropolis on Feb. 11, for which he was named man of the match, Vinícius went even additional. “It is all the time thrilling to speak to Actual Madrid about my renewal,” he stated. “I’ve a contract till 2027, however I’ve all the time stated I wish to play right here for a very long time… God prepared, within the coming days, the negotiations will be resolved.”
Coach Carlo Ancelotti has been eager to unfold a message of calm, too. “So far as I am conscious — and I’ve direct info from the participant — he is very completely satisfied right here,” Ancelotti stated final month. “They’re particular person choices. However I feel he is serious about selecting glory.”
It is a good line, with an implicit follow-up: glory, over limitless wealth. However that is precisely what you’d count on Ancelotti to say. And no person genuinely expects contract talks to be finalised as shortly as Vinícius enthusiastically prompt in Manchester.
The phrases of Saudi Professional League CEO Omar Mugharbel, talking final month through the Spanish Supercopa in Jeddah, warned in opposition to dismissing the concept of Vinícius selecting the Saudi Professional League. “We do not dream,” Mugharbel informed Marca. “It is a matter of time, and negotiations.”
The Saudi curiosity is actual, and so is Vinícius’ willingness to entertain the prospect, a place that strengthens his leverage in talks with Madrid. These negotiations appear like they might change into a high-stakes arm wrestling match between participant and membership.
Extra reporting by Rodrigo Faez and Gustavo Hofman
What’s Vinícius’ contract state of affairs? And what is the timeframe for renewal talks?
Vinícius’ present contract was formally introduced by Actual Madrid on Oct. 31, 2023 though the phrases had been agreed to over a 12 months earlier in July 2022, simply weeks after he scored the one purpose of the Champions League closing in opposition to Liverpool in Paris. The contract expires on June 30, 2027. A supply informed ESPN that the participant’s take-home pay at Madrid is now €17 million a 12 months ($17.8m) after tax, which features a substantial bonus he obtained for profitable FIFA’s The Greatest Males’s Participant in December.
Madrid’s typical routine is to start contract negotiations with stars after they have two years left on their offers. It is a common sense strategy designed to keep away from uncomfortable, final-year standoffs when gamers have rising leverage. That timeline would imply talks with Vinícius had been resulting from begin this summer season, however on this case, the membership was conscious of curiosity from Saudi Arabia and made an early first transfer.
Sources informed ESPN earlier this month that Madrid had contacted Vinícius’ representatives, saying that they needed to kick off negotiations. Step one could be to get an concept of the participant’s wage expectations. That vital improvement got here final week, when the membership was knowledgeable of Vinícius’ calls for. The small print, and that all-important quantity, haven’t been made public. A follow-up assembly passed off on Friday, between the second leg of the Champions League playoff in opposition to Manchester Metropolis and Madrid internet hosting Girona on Sunday (stream LIVE at 10:15 a.m. ET on ESPN+ within the U.S.).
Is Vinícius actually contemplating leaving Madrid?
Madrid took a chance on Vinícius, agreeing a €45m deal to signal him when he was simply 16 years previous, mere days after he had made his skilled debut. It is a wager that is paid off handsomely since, as Vinícius has repaid Madrid’s religion with targets and particular person and crew trophies. Sources say that he stays vastly grateful to Madrid for the help and persistence the membership has proven him throughout his inconsistent improvement from tough diamond into the completed article.
Regardless of that, sources say that Vinícius has felt for some months now that there are doubts throughout the membership about his function within the crew over the medium-term. A part of that pertains to the arrivals of Jude Bellingham in July 2023 and Kylian Mbappé final summer season. Earlier than their signings, Vinícius was Madrid’s undisputed star. Now, he is considered one of three.
Sources informed ESPN that Vinícius additionally suspects that each Bellingham and Mbappé will obtain extra help within the pursuit of future awards just like the Ballon d’Or. Within the 2024 males’s rating, the trio completed second (Vinícius), third (Bellingham) and sixth (Mbappé). The votes for Madrid gamers among the many Ballon d’Or panel had been cut up; so too, thinks Vinícius, are the membership’s loyalties. Vinícius loves enjoying for the membership, however sources stated he needs to really feel valued — that Madrid appreciates what he has achieved and what he can nonetheless obtain.
There are different points, too: the near-weekly hostile reception that Vinícius faces from opposition followers in Spain, which has — all too steadily — concerned racist abuse. Vinícius has bravely led the struggle to sort out Spanish soccer’s racism drawback, however he has additionally admitted that the incidents depart him with “much less and fewer need to play.” The attraction of a recent begin in a brand new league is apparent. However there was no sensible various till the Saudi Professional League got here calling.
How tempting is the supply from Saudi Arabia?
ESPN first reported on Saudi curiosity in Vinícius in August final 12 months, with a supply saying that the Saudi Public Funding Fund (PIF) had approached Vinícius’ representatives. An annual wage of as much as €350m had been talked about, and the concept was for Vinícius to change into one of many faces of the Saudis’ 2034 World Cup venture. His seemingly vacation spot was Al Ahli. It was a deal that would not simply make Vinícius the highest-paid footballer on the planet; it will make him the highest-paid athlete within the historical past of sports activities. One other supply later spoke of a possible five-year, €200m-per-season deal, in a rustic with no revenue tax.
Early studies within the Spanish media claimed that Vinícius had rejected the strategy, and he was dedicated to staying at Madrid. However a supply informed ESPN that was not the case. As a substitute, Vinícius’ determination was to not take any determination in any respect. He had postponed making a judgment on his long-term future till the top of the 2024-25 season. One other issue was whether or not or not Vinícius would win final 12 months’s Ballon d’Or. Madrid and Vinícius believed that he would, though their confidence proved to be unfounded.
The Saudi curiosity did not finish there. Sources informed ESPN that the Saudis received again in contact with Vinícius’ camp in December, eager to maintain traces of communication open. No concrete proposal was made, however the message was: remember about us. There have been no new developments since December, and a supply informed ESPN that Vinícius’ brokers had been irritated by the shortage of a proper supply. At current, Vinícius is nearer to staying than going, the supply stated.
Would Madrid conform to a switch? And for what sort of charge?
Vinícius’ €1 billion launch clause is prohibitive, even for the PIF. That signifies that if the Saudis wish to safe the participant earlier than his contract expires in 2027, an settlement must be reached with Madrid on a switch charge. Final summer season, after they had been made conscious of Saudi curiosity, the membership’s acknowledged place was that Vinícius was not obtainable for switch, and they might not negotiate under that €1bn clause. However Vinícius’ camp felt that Madrid is perhaps extra open to that risk in 2025.
Publicly, the membership nonetheless treats Vinícius in a way befitting considered one of its franchise gamers. They went above and past of their help of him within the Ballon d’Or debate, boycotting the Paris ceremony in protest after they found that Manchester Metropolis’s Rodri had overwhelmed their man to the award. And Ancelotti continues to reward him at each alternative. “Folks neglect that with Vinícius we received the Champions League in Paris [in 2022] and in London [in 2024],” Ancelotti stated final month. “He is unquestionable as a participant.”
2:02
How the soccer world reacted to Vinicius Junior’s Ballon d’Or snub
ESPN FC’s analysts and gamers pontificate after Actual Madrid declined to attend the Ballon d’Or ceremony upon discovering out that Manchester Metropolis’s Rodri received.
Nevertheless, there has additionally been inside frustration at points of Vinícius’ recreation, specifically his frequent yellow playing cards for dissent. Teammates and employees — who’re principally keen on him — have tried to assist, with out success. “[Vinícius] created plenty of possibilities, he supplied an help, and he received booked. Nothing new, enterprise as regular,” Ancelotti joked after a second-half cameo at Leganés this month.
When it comes to public relations, any switch must be portrayed as Vinícius’ determination, not Madrid’s. And there’s no consensus on what charge Madrid would seemingly settle for. It could actually exceed the world document, set when Paris Saint-Germain paid €222m to signal Neymar from Barcelona in 2017. A supply informed ESPN that the participant’s camp believed there was inside disagreement at Madrid on the difficulty. Membership president Florentino Pérez was reluctant to budge from the €1bn clause; others, like CEO José Ángel Sánchez, felt a suggestion between €350m and €400m could be acceptable.
What can we study from Madrid’s earlier contract standoffs?
With regards to participant departures from Actual Madrid, the home virtually all the time win. Their sense of timing is impeccable. Are you able to consider a participant to whom they’ve regretted saying goodbye lately? The rule even applies to all-time greats, whose exits had been as soon as extremely controversial. Cristiano Ronaldo left in 2018, sad at Madrid’s stance in contract talks, and joined Juventus for €100m. The crew missed his targets, however hindsight suggests it was the correct transfer.
The identical may very well be stated of former captain Sergio Ramos, who unceremoniously left in 2021 after his delayed response to a contract supply led to it being withdrawn. There was Raphaël Varane in 2021 and Casemiro in 2022, each signing for Manchester United for substantial charges. Even Karim Benzema‘s shock departure in 2023, becoming a member of Al Ittihad on a free switch whereas he was the reigning Ballon d’Or, turned out OK: Madrid received a LaLiga and Champions League double the next season, without having for a first-choice center-forward.
So precedent means that if Madrid had been to let Vinícius go — for a world-record charge — they’d be tremendous. It could even imply Mbappé may play in his most popular place on the left of the assault.
All of which means that what as soon as appeared unthinkable — Vinícius Junior, arguably the world’s finest participant, leaving Actual Madrid whereas nonetheless approaching his peak — has change into an actual prospect. And even when he does find yourself agreeing to a profitable new deal at Madrid — which on steadiness, is now the almost certainly state of affairs — the Saudi curiosity signifies that the membership must work onerous for it.
It is the last word energy transfer; to say he’d love to remain, however he is additionally being supplied the largest contract in sports activities historical past, after which ask if there’s something extra that Madrid can do.
No surprise Vinícius has been in no hurry to resume. He is holding all of the playing cards.
